Baylor vs Iowa State Prediction
Iowa State comes into this matchup after a statement win over Oklahoma State last week, but they have lost three of their last five games. The Cyclones have struggled on defense, as they have allowed 31+ points in four of their last five. Baylor has won three of their last five games and dominated UCF last week. The Bears have been very strong defensively, allowing 19 points or fewer in four of their last five games, and I think that will be the difference here. Take Baylor to cover this number at home.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
The Baylor Bears are 5-3 (3-2) this season after they defeated UCF by a score of 41-9 in their last game. Baylor led 20-6 at halftime and added 21 points in the second half in the blowout win. The Bears out gained UCF by a total of 503-281, went 7-16 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-0 in the game. DJ Lagway threw for 319 yards and four touchdowns, while Gavin Freeman caught five passes for 114 yards and one score. Ryelan Morris rushed 11 times for 82 yards in the win.
Prior to that game, Baylor lost to Kansas by a score of 25-24 and TCU by a score of 17-6. The Bears have scored 30.6 points per game with 283.9 passing yards and 150.9 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 15.3 points against per game this season. DJ Lagway has thrown for 1,671 yards with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions, while Gavin Freeman has 63 catches for 792 yards and three scores. Dawson Pendergrass has rushed 95 times for 338 yards and two touchdowns this season.
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview
The Iowa State Cyclones are 4-4 (2-3) this year after they defeated Oklahoma State by a score of 51-49 in their last game. Iowa State led 24-21 at halftime, but they needed a field goal as time expired to escape with the narrow win. The Cyclones out gained Oklahoma State by a total of 581-533, went 8-15 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Jaylen Raynor threw for 309 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, while Aiden Flora rushed 29 times for 221 yards and two scores. Jamal Polite Jr caught six passes for 171 yards and one touchdown in the game.
Prior to that win, Iowa State lost to Arizona by a score of 39-3 and BYU by a score of 24-10. The Cyclones have scored 29.0 points per game with 193.4 passing yards and 176.6 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 27.3 points against per game this season. Jaylen Raynor has thrown for 1,416 yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions, while Aiden Flora has rushed 131 times for 937 yards and eight scores. Jamal Polite Jr has led the WR with just 14 catches for 286 yards and two touchdowns this year.
Why the Baylor Bears will win
- The home team has won seven of Iowa State’s last eight games.
- Iowa State has lost each of its last three road games.
- Iowa State has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Baylor has covered the spread in four of its last five November games as a favorite.
- Iowa State has lost the first half in eight of its last nine November games as a road underdog.
- Baylor has won the first quarter in three of its last four November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Twelve of Iowa State’s last 13 games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the last five games between Iowa State and Baylor have gone OVER the total points line.
Baylor Bears Player Prop Facts
- Gavin Freeman has recorded 5+ receptions in 13 consecutive games – longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 10.
Iowa State Cyclones Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 10, Aiden Flora leads the Big 12 Conference for rushing yards (937) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Baylor ranks T3rd among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (2.9).
- Baylor ranks 7th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (70.8).
- Iowa State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of five points or less of any FBS team this season (2).
- Iowa State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (2).
Positive Trends
As you can see in the trends, we have some good angles pointing to Baylor here. The Bears have covered their last four November games as a favorite, while Iowa State has failed to cover six of their last seven road games against non-ranked teams. Iowa State’s offense looked good last week, but their defense is awful and they were also facing an Oklahoma State team that plays literally no defense. I like Baylor to win by double-digits at home here.