California vs Virginia Prediction
In this California vs Virginia prediction for the College Football Week 11 game on Saturday, November 14th, Virginia is coming in as a -10.5 favorite at home. Neither team has been playing well lately, Virginia has gone 1-4 over its last 5 games and California 1-5 over its last 6, and against the spread it is even worse as each of them is 1-6 ATS in the last 7. The offenses are a big part of the problem, Virginia was held to 16 points or less in three of its last four games and California has put up only 37 points in its last three put together. The under is 7-3 in the last 10 games of these two combined, so I’m taking the under 46.5 points in this one.
Virginia Cavaliers Preview
Virginia is 4-5 overall and 2-4 in conference play, which puts it in 10th place in the ACC. It is 4-1 at home, 0-3 on the road and 0-1 at neutral sites. Virginia lost 51-7 at Wake Forest in its last game. That followed a 19-16 home loss to Duke and a 23-13 road loss to SMU. North Carolina and Virginia Tech are next.
Virginia scores 25.9 points per game and allows 23.1. The offense gains 357.4 total yards per game, with 212 through the air and 145.4 on the ground. The defense gives up 350.1 yards per game, 189.7 passing and 160.4 rushing. Virginia runs 67.4 plays per game at 5.3 yards per play, and opponents run 64.3 plays at 5.4 yards each. It picks up 20.7 first downs per game and allows 18.7. Virginia averages 7.5 yards per pass attempt and 3.7 yards per rush. It has 30 touchdowns this season, 18 passing and 11 rushing. Virginia converts 30% of its third downs and 61.29% of its fourth downs. It has thrown 3 interceptions, and its defense has picked off 8 passes.
Beau Pribula has passed for 1,581 yards and 14 touchdowns, completing 65.6% of his throws. Jekail Middlebrook is the top rusher with 513 yards. Da’Shawn Martin leads the receivers with 26 catches for 366 yards. On defense, Maddox Marcellus has a team-high 44 total tackles, 20 of them solo, and Matthew Fobbs-White leads the team with 5 sacks.
California Golden Bears Preview
California comes in at 3-6 overall and 2-4 in the conference, which is 15th place in the ACC. It is 2-3 at home and 1-3 on the road. California’s last game was a 31-10 loss at NC State. Before that it lost 59-20 at SMU and 41-7 at home to Wake Forest. Stanford and Pitt are up next.
California averages 21.9 points per game and gives up 31.6. It gains 358.1 total yards per game, and most of that comes from the pass, 275.3 yards to 82.8 on the ground. The defense allows 392.6 yards per game, with 208 passing and 184.6 rushing. California averages 70.3 plays per game and 5.1 yards per play, while its opponents average 65.4 plays and 6 yards per play. It gets 19.6 first downs per game and allows 21.9. The offense averages 6.4 yards per pass attempt and 3 yards per rush attempt. California has scored 24 touchdowns this season, 14 by pass and 8 by rush. It converts 35.25% of its third downs and 29.17% of its fourth downs. California has thrown 6 interceptions and its defense has 7.
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele leads California with 1,751 passing yards, a 67.4% completion rate and 11 touchdowns. Adam Mohammed has a team-high 363 rushing yards. Chase Hendricks is the top receiver with 61 catches for 565 yards. On defense, AJ Tuitele leads the team with 52 total tackles, 19 of them solo. Tuitele and JD McKinley also share the sack lead with 3 each.
California Golden Bears @ Virginia Cavaliers Betting Trends: Week 11
Why the Virginia Cavaliers will win
- California has lost five of its last six road games.
- The home team has won five of Virginia’s last six games.
- California has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 12 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- The home team has covered the spread in four of California’s last five games.
- California has lost the first half in each of its last three November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Why the California Golden Bears will win
- Virginia has lost three of its last four November games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- California has won six of its last eight November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Virginia has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games against conference opponents.
- California has won the first half in three of its last four November road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Five of California’s last six games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of Virginia’s last five games against conference opponents at Scott Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
Virginia Cavaliers Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Dashawn Martin leads Virginia for touchdowns (6) this season.
California Golden Bears Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Kingston Lopa ranks T2nd amongst FBS players for interceptions (5) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Virginia ranks 130th among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (72.7).
- Virginia ranks 122nd among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (92.0).
- California ranks 133rd among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (29.2).
- California ranks 132nd among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (11.6).