In this article, we will formulate an East Carolina vs Alabama Prediction for this College Football Week 1 matchup on Saturday, September 5th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.
Alabama Preview
Alabama finished last season with an 11-4 overall record, a 7-1 conference record, and placed 2nd in the Southeastern. They had a 6-1 home record and a 5-1 road record. Offensively, the Crimson Tide scored 29.5 points per game (ranking 50th in the nation). Defensively, Alabama allowed 19.2 points per game (ranking 20th in the nation). They averaged 367.7 total yards per game (104.1 rushing, 263.5 passing) and gave up 296.8 total yards per game (126.9 rushing, 169.9 passing).
Ty Simpson led the Crimson Tide with 305/473 completed passes and 3,567 total passing yards, throwing 28 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Jamarion Miller led the team in rushing yards with 504, adding a team-high 3 rushing touchdowns, while Ryan Williams had a team-high 49 caught passes for 968 receiving yards and 4 receiving touchdowns. Defensively, Deontae Lawson led the team with 89 total tackles (48 solo), while Yhonzae Pierre led Alabama in sacks with 8.0.
East Carolina Preview
East Carolina finished last season with a 9-4 overall record, a 6-2 conference record, and placed 4th in the AAC. They had a 5-1 home record and a 3-3 road record. Offensively, the Pirates scored 32.7 points per game (ranking 24th in the nation). Defensively, East Carolina allowed 20.1 points per game (ranking 25th in the nation). They averaged 449 total yards per game (176.3 rushing, 272.7 passing) and gave up 351 total yards per game (120.2 rushing, 230.8 passing).
Katin Houser led the Pirates with 269/408 completed passes and 3,300 total passing yards, throwing 19 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Marlon Gunn Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 582, adding a team-high 6 rushing touchdowns, while Anthony Smith had a team-high 64 caught passes for 1,053 receiving yards and 6 receiving touchdowns. Defensively, Ja’Marley Riddle led the team with 70 total tackles (38 solo), while Zion Wilson led East Carolina in sacks with 7.0.
East Carolina Pirates @ Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Trends: Week 1
Why the Alabama Crimson Tide will win
- East Carolina has lost each of its last 15 games against AP-ranked teams.
- Alabama has won 38 of its last 39 games in September.
- Alabama has covered the spread in each of its last six home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- East Carolina has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six September games as an underdog.
- Alabama has won the first quarter in each of its last 14 home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Alabama has won the first half each of its last 32 games against non-AP-ranked teams at Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Why the East Carolina Pirates will win
- East Carolina has won six of its last seven games.
- East Carolina has covered the spread in each of its last four season openers.
- Alabama has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games.
- East Carolina has won the first quarter in each of its last three road games in September.
Total Points Facts
- Each of East Carolina’s last six games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of Alabama’s last six games in Alabama have gone UNDER the total points line.
Alabama Crimson Tide Player Prop Facts
- Bray Hubbard ranked T1st in the Southeastern Conference for interceptions (4) last season.
East Carolina Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Kyler Pearson ranked T7th in the American Conference for punt return yards (83) last season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Alabama ranked 9th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game last season (169.9).
- Alabama ranked 129th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against last season (69.6).
- East Carolina ranked 6th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game last season (9.3).
- East Carolina ranked 6th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters last season (+6.2).
East Carolina vs Alabama Prediction
In this East Carolina vs Alabama Prediction, Alabama is coming as -28.5 home favorites. Both teams had the same number of defeats last season and both had top-20 defenses, allowing 39.3 points per game combined. Alabama was a strong 10-5 to the under last season and do not expect a high-scoring game in the season opener between those two teams. Alabama is projected as a top-15 team this season but laying so many points against an efficient defense is not something I am willing to do. Take the under 52.5 points between two elite defenses in this matchup.