Florida vs Kentucky Prediction
In this Florida vs Kentucky prediction for Saturday, November 14th in Week 11 of the College Football season, Kentucky is coming in as a -3.5 favorite at home. Kentucky has been the better of the two this season, it has lost only once at home and it is in very good form with 6 wins in its last 7 games. Florida is on the other end of that, it is 1-4 straight up and 1-4 against the spread over its last 5 games and its strong offense has not travelled well, with just 25 points combined in two of its last three road games. Now it has to go up against a strong Kentucky defense on the road, in a place where it lost and did not cover in its last three visits, and that looks like trouble to me, so I will lay the small number with Kentucky in this one.
Kentucky Wildcats Preview
Kentucky is 7-2 overall and 5-2 in the SEC, which has it in 2nd place in the conference. It has gone 4-1 at home and 3-1 on the road. Kentucky is coming off a 34-6 loss at Tennessee. Before that game it beat Vanderbilt 34-17 at home and won 21-13 at Oklahoma. Missouri and Louisville are next.
Kentucky averages 29.9 points per game and allows 25.8. The offense puts up 383.6 total yards per game, 219.9 passing and 163.7 rushing. The defense allows 365.6 yards per game, with 238.2 through the air and 127.3 on the ground. Kentucky runs 64.8 plays per game and gains 5.9 yards per play. Opponents run 67.7 plays and gain 5.4 yards per play. Kentucky gets 20.4 first downs per game and gives up 19.8. It averages 7.4 yards per pass attempt and 4.7 yards per rush attempt. Kentucky has scored 33 touchdowns this season, 14 through the air and 16 on the ground. It converts 34.91% of its third downs and 55.56% of its fourth downs. Kentucky has thrown only 2 interceptions all season, and its defense has come up with 12.
Kenny Minchey leads Kentucky with 1,979 passing yards and 14 touchdowns on 69.9% completions. CJ Baxter has a team-high 541 rushing yards. Kenny Darby is the top receiver with 45 catches for 576 yards. On defense, Grant Godfrey leads the team with 78 total tackles, 30 of them solo, and Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace has a team-best 6 sacks.
Florida Gators Preview
Florida has a 5-4 record and is 3-4 in SEC play, which leaves it 10th in the conference. It is 3-2 at home, 2-1 on the road and 0-1 at neutral sites. Florida lost 23-7 at home to Oklahoma last time out. The game before that was a 27-8 loss to Georgia at a neutral site, and it came after a 27-24 win at Texas. Vanderbilt and Florida State come next.
Florida scores 32.4 points per game and gives up 27.6. It gains 400.6 total yards per game, with 236.3 passing and 164.2 rushing. Opponents gain 367.2 yards per game against Florida, 232.6 passing and 134.7 rushing. Florida averages 67.4 plays per game and 5.9 yards per play on offense. On defense it faces 67.3 plays per game and allows 5.5 yards per play. Florida has 21.2 first downs per game and its opponents have 20.1. It averages 7.9 yards per pass attempt and 4.4 yards per rush attempt. Florida has 37 touchdowns this season, and 22 of them came on the ground compared to 13 by pass. It converts 41.59% of its third downs and 58.82% of its fourth downs. Florida has thrown 10 interceptions this season, while its defense has only 4.
Aaron Philo has thrown for 1,367 yards and 9 touchdowns, completing 70.5% of his passes. Jadan Baugh is the leading rusher with 836 yards. Dallas Wilson has 35 catches for a team-high 465 receiving yards. On defense, Myles Graham leads Florida with 70 total tackles, 39 of them solo. Jayden Woods and Emmanuel Oyebadejo are tied for the team lead with 4.5 sacks each.
Florida Gators @ Kentucky Wildcats Betting Trends: Week 11
Why the Kentucky Wildcats will win
- Kentucky has won each of its last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams at Kroger Field.
- Florida has lost nine of its last 11 November games against AP-ranked teams.
- Kentucky has covered the spread in each of its last five home games against Florida.
- Florida has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
- Florida has lost the first half in each of its last five games against conference opponents.
Why the Florida Gators will win
- The underdog has won four of the last five games between Florida and Kentucky.
- Kentucky has lost 11 of its last 14 home games against conference opponents.
- The underdog has covered the spread in four of the last five games between Florida and Kentucky.
- Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games in November.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Florida’s last four games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of Kentucky’s last six November games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Kentucky Wildcats Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Jordan Castell ranks T6th amongst FBS players for interceptions (4) this season.
Florida Gators Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Jadan Baugh leads the Southeastern Conference for rushing touchdowns (14) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Kentucky ranks T118th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (90.9).
- Kentucky ranks 112th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (34.9).
- Florida ranks T106th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (4).
- Florida ranks T34th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (8.4).