The Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Florida Gators meet Saturday in college football action from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Here’s a Florida vs Mississippi State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Florida vs Mississippi State pick.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview
The Bulldogs have a half-dozen games in the books so far this year, carving out a 4-2 record along the way. Mississippi State opened on a nice four-game winning streak, taking out Southern Miss, Arizona State, Alcorn Sate and Northern Illinois during that time. The Bulldogs’ first loss came at home in overtime versus Tennessee on September 27 by a score of 41-34. In that one Mississippi State’s defense came up with three takeaways but also surrendered 466 total yards (335 passing). The Bulldogs had a tepid 180 passing yards and two turnovers as well.
In their latest outing back on October 4 versus Texas A&M, the Bulldogs were down 14-3 heading into the final quarter. Mississippi State gave up another 17 points from there, resulting in a 31-9 loss on the road. QB Blake Shapen finished 15-of-20 for 142 yards, one TD and one pick. Fluff Bothwell added 14 carries for 60 yards as the top rusher, while Brenen Thompson caught two balls for 54 yards and a touchdown.
Florida Gators Betting Preview
Over on the Gators’ side, they kicked off the year with a 55-0 blowout of LIU, then fell in a tough result versus a good South Florida team 18-16. Florida would keep the losing skid going over the next two games versus LSU and Miami before finally getting another victory versus Texas 29-21 on October 4. In that one the Gators scored 10 points in both the first and third quarters along the way to 457 yards, 22 first downs and 7.0 yards per play. Florida’s defense came up with a couple of interceptions and held Texas to just 16 first downs.
In last Saturday’s matchup with Texas A&M, the Gators carried a 14-14 tie into the second quarter and trailed by just one touchdown after three. A 10-0 deficit in the fourth quarter led the team to a 34-17 loss, however. Quarterback DJ Lagway finished 21-of-37 for 245 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while Jadan Baugh carried 18 times for 65 yards as the team’s leading rusher. Tops in receiving during the losing effort was Vernell Brown, who came up with six catches for 77 yards in total.
Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Florida Gators Betting Trends: Week 8
Florida Gators Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 8, Jadan Baugh leads Florida for touchdowns (3) this season.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 8, Jayven Williams leads the Southeastern Conference for forced fumbles (2) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Florida ranks 132nd among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (2.3).
- Florida ranks 129th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (7.3).
- Mississippi State ranks T5th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+8.2).
- Mississippi State ranks T9th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (10.8).
Florida vs Mississippi State Prediction
I’ll lean toward Florida, but you could make a case either way. The Gators had a tough matchup versus a very good Texas A&M squad (on the road, no less) in their last outing. To their credit, Florida stayed competitive for most of the game. That said, the Gators also lost two fumbles and went just 1-of-10 on third downs alongside just 15 first downs and 74 rushing yards. The defense had trouble keeping a lid on the Aggies’ attack, giving up 417 yards, 19 first downs and 9-of-17 on third-down conversion attempts. It’s been a tough run for Florida during this 1-4 stretch, but each one of those losses came versus a ranked team. The Gators haven’t been too bad, all things considered—it’s just been a tough schedule this year. Still, 2-4 certainly isn’t where the team wants to be at this point.
As for Mississippi State, their offense didn’t look very good during their last outing versus Texas A&M. The Bulldogs came up with just 219 yards, 4.3 yards per play, 14 first downs and a 1-of-10 result on third-down tries—not to mention a couple of turnovers. Texas A&M is a great team though, and Mississippi State will have some extra time to prep for this weekend’s game.