The New Mexico State Aggies and the Fresno State Bulldogs meet Saturday in New Mexico Bowl college football action from University Stadium. New Mexico State managed a 10-4 run this year, falling in their last outing to Liberty. As for Fresno State, they’re 8-4 overall and sitting on a three-game losing streak. The Bulldogs fell to San Diego State in their most recent game. Let’s get into our New Mexico State vs. Fresno State prediction. Check back all season long for free college football picks at Sports Chat Place.
New Mexico State Aggies
The Aggies started out the year on a sketchy 2-3 run with losses to UMass, Liberty and Hawaii but then hit an eight-game win streak through November. New Mexico State is averaging 28.7 points per game this year with a total of 50 touchdowns. The majority of those scores (28) came through the air, alongside 224.9 yards per game and nine picks.
In their last matchup on December 1 versus Liberty, the Aggies were able to keep pace for three quarters with a 35-35 tie. New Mexico State faltered from there and ended up losing 49-35, though. QB Diego Pavia finished with 188 yards and three scores, while also leading the rush on 45 yards and another TD.
New Mexico State Aggies Team Facts
- New Mexico State has won each of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- New Mexico State has covered the spread in each of its last 10 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- New Mexico State has won the first half in each of its last four games against opponents from the Mountain West Conference.
- New Mexico State has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
- Six of New Mexico State’s last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
More College Football Picks: UCLA vs Boise State Prediction!
Fresno State Bulldogs
Over on the Fresno State side, they got off to a great start this year at 8-1 with only a loss to Wyoming. It’s been three straight losses since then however. The Bulldogs are still averaging 30.1 points per game with that trio of defeats, as well as 274.1 yards per game passing and 104.3 yards per game on the ground.
In their latest defeat against San Diego State, the Bulldogs trailed 16-10 by the break and limped to a 33-18 result. Mikey Keene threw for 190 yards and an interception, but Malik Sherrod did most of the scoring with 138 rush yards and two scores. Erik Brooks put up five catches for 53 yards as well.
Fresno State Bulldogs Team Facts
- Fresno State has won each of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
- Fresno State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games.
- Fresno State has won the first quarter in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
- Fresno State has won the first half in five of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
- Six of Fresno State’s last eight December games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- New Mexico State rank 36th among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (21.8).
ANDREW’S FREE NEW MEXICO STATE VS FRESNO STATE PREDICTION
I’m sticking with New Mexico State. The Aggies were able to hang with a great Liberty team in their last outing, and nearly pulled off the upset despite giving up a whopping 712 total yards. A total of 393 of those yards came on the ground, so New Mexico State will need to shore things up before this bowl game. The good news is that the Aggies have scored 31 or more points in three of their last four games and should keep that trend going here.
As for Fresno State, they’ve fallen off the table in their last three games, scoring no more than 18 points in any of those. The Bulldogs are capable of putting up some pretty healthy points totals, but if they’re going to compete here it’ll be in a lower-scoring, ball-control type game. I don’t see New Mexico State following along with that, so I like the Aggies on the cover.