The California Golden Bears and the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors meet Wednesday in Sheraton Hawaii Bowl college football action from Clarence TC Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu. Here’s a Hawaii vs California prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Hawaii vs California pick.
California Golden Bears Betting Preview
The Golden Bears had a pretty rocky season, but they finished with some nice wins near the end. Cal opened on a 3-0 run, then took losses to San Diego State, Duke, Virginia Tech and Virginia during a 2-4 stretch from there. The wins otherwise were over Boston College and North Carolina. Since then the Golden Bears are 2-1 with a lone loss to Stanford in between wins over ranked teams Louisville and SMU. That gives Cal a 7-5 overall record this year.
In the SMU matchup on November 29, the Bears held a 17-7 lead by the break. California had to hang on during a wild fourth quarter but eventually emerged victorious 38-35 in the end. QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele finished with 330 yards and four scores on 31-of-40 passing and Kendrick Raphael had 33 carries for 111 yards and a TD of his own. Jacob DeJesus caught 12 balls for 97 yards and a touchdown as Cal’s leaking receiver in the win.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Betting Preview
Over on the Rainbow Warriors’ side, they were pretty consistent this year and didn’t take consecutive losses. Hawaii opened on a 3-2 run with defeats versus Arizona and Fresno State. It’s been a 5-2 run across the last seven outings with losses to San Jose State and UNLV. Otherwise the Warriors took victories over Air Force, Utah State, Colorado State, San Diego Sate and Wyoming in that stretch. Overall through 12 games Hawaii is 8-4 this year.
Matched up against Wyoming on November 29, the Warriors jumped out to a 20-7 first-half lead. Hawaii held the Cowboys scoreless in the final three quarters on the way to a 27-7 win. Micah Alejado was 17-of-24 for 289 yards, two scores and one interception. Cam Barfield added 15 carries for 77 yards and a touchdown while leading receiver Jackson Harris had 153 yards and a TD on four catches.
Why the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors will win
- Hawaii has won each of its last 17 games as a home favorite.
- California has lost three of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Hawaii has covered the spread in 11 of its last 12 home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- California has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Hawaii has won the first half in each of its last six home games against non-conference opponents.
Why the California Golden Bears will win
- The underdog has won each of California’s last three games.
- Hawaii has lost 15 of its last 19 games against teams from California.
- Hawaii has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 12 games as a favorite against teams from California.
- The underdog has covered the spread in four of Hawaii’s last five games at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.
- California has won the first half in 23 of its last 27 games against non-conference opponents.
- California has won the first quarter in six of its last seven games against non-conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Eleven of Hawaii’s last 12 games against non-conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of California’s last five games against opponents from the Mountain West Conference have gone UNDER the total points line.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Player Prop Facts
- Jackson Harris has recorded 75+ receiving yards in seven consecutive games (including postseason) – longest streak in the FBS, heading into the bowl games.
California Golden Bears Player Prop Facts
- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has recorded 25+ completions in three consecutive games (including postseason) – longest streak in the FBS, heading into the bowl games.
Matchup/League Facts
- Hawaii ranks T2nd among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (94.6).
- Hawaii ranks T7th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (34.8).
- California ranks 136th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (76.5).
- California ranks 23rd among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (270.8).
Hawaii vs California Prediction
I’ll take a stab on Cal but you could obviously argue this one either way. The Bears came up big in a win over SMU during their last outing, hitting 452 yards total, 330 passing yards, 5.9 yards per play, 27 first downs and a 7-of-13 rate on third-down tries. The defense gave up 477 yards, 7.1 yards per play and 7-of-11 on third downs on the other side, but it was good enough to get the victory in the end. California averages 24.8 points per game this year, with 270.8 yards per game, 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions through the air. The rush averages 76.5 yards per game with 18 touchdowns thus far.
As for Hawaii, they’re averaging 28.5 points per game this year with 289.7 yards, 26 first downs and 12 picks via the pass. The run game yields 104 yards per game with eight total touchdowns for the Warriors. This bowl matchup could go a lot of different ways so I’m probably staying away. That said, I like Cal a little bit better if they can get their defense dialed in.