Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky Prediction
In this Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky prediction for this College Football Week 11 matchup on Saturday, November 14th, Jacksonville State is coming as -7.5 road favorites. Jacksonville State has been the far better team this season with more than twice the number of wins than Western Kentucky and have been red-hot with six consecutive wins and 5-1 against the spread. They have an elite defense, ranking 25th in the entire nation and are allowing 14.1 points per game less than the Hilltoppers. Take Jacksonville State and lay the points on the road in this one.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Preview
Western Kentucky has a 3-6 record and a 2-3 conference record, sitting on the 6th place of CUSA, while having a 2-1 home record and a 1-5 away record. They are coming off a 42-51 road loss against Middle Tennessee, following a 21-35 home loss against Delaware and a 16-3 road win against Sam Houston, and will face Liberty and Kennesaw State next.
Offensively, Western Kentucky averages 23.6 points per game, while defensively, they allow 33.3 points per game. Western Kentucky averages 383.2 total yards per game (225.2 passing and 158 rushing), while allowing 403.6 total yards per game (174.4 rushing and 229.1 passing). They average 72.3 plays per game and 5.3 yards per play on offense, while allowing 63.7 plays per game and 6.3 yards per play on defense. Western Kentucky averages 19.8 first downs per game on offense and 19.2 first downs per game on defense. They average 6.2 yards per pass attempt and 4.4 yards per rush attempt. Western Kentucky has scored 26 touchdowns this season (12 passing and 14 rushing). They are converting 39.86% of their third downs and 52.38% of their fourth downs. They have thrown 6 interceptions this season, while their defense has intercepted 4 passes.
Brock Glenn leads Western Kentucky with 1,039 passing yards with 55.9% completed passes and 7 touchdowns. Ajay Allen leads the team in rushing yards with 535, while Jonathan Stafford Jr. has a team-high 523 receiving yards and 54 receptions. Defensively, Jaylen Lewis has a team-high 66 total tackles (46 of them solo), while Westen Ard leads the team with 2.5 sacks.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks Preview
Jacksonville State has a 7-2 record and a 5-0 conference record, sitting on the 2nd place of CUSA, while having a 5-0 home record and a 2-2 away record. They are coming off a 47-14 home win against Sam Houston, following a 24-0 road win against New Mexico State and a 27-24 home win against Florida International, and will face Missouri State and Delaware next.
Offensively, Jacksonville State averages 29.1 points per game, while defensively, they allow 19.2 points per game. Jacksonville State averages 404.6 total yards per game (229.9 passing and 174.7 rushing), while allowing 321.4 total yards per game (150.4 rushing and 171 passing). They average 61.9 plays per game and 6.5 yards per play on offense, while allowing 62.6 plays per game and 5.1 yards per play on defense. Jacksonville State averages 22 first downs per game on offense and 18 first downs per game on defense. They average 8.5 yards per pass attempt and 5 yards per rush attempt. Jacksonville State has scored 32 touchdowns this season (15 passing and 14 rushing). They are converting 44.12% of their third downs and 57.89% of their fourth downs. They have thrown 8 interceptions this season, while their defense has intercepted 7 passes.
Caden Creel leads Jacksonville State with 1,987 passing yards with 66.7% completed passes and 15 touchdowns, also adding a team-high 800 rushing yards. Deondre Johnson has a team-high 520 receiving yards and 26 receptions. Defensively, Caleb Nix has a team-high 56 total tackles (32 of them solo), while Jacob Cruz, Tae Floyd, and Quay Hood lead the team with 2 sacks each.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Trends: Week 11
Why the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will win
- Western Kentucky has won 21 of its last 24 home games in November.
- Western Kentucky has covered the spread in eight of its last 10 games at L.T. Smith Stadium.
- Jacksonville State has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last 10 road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Why the Jacksonville State Gamecocks will win
- Jacksonville State has won each of its last 13 games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Western Kentucky has lost each of its last three November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Jacksonville State has covered the spread in four of its last five games in November.
- Western Kentucky has lost the first half in four of its last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Four of Western Kentucky’s last five games against teams from Alabama have gone OVER the total points line.
- Four of Jacksonville State’s last five November games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Jonathan Stafford Jr./Cam’ron Lacy lead the Conference USA for receptions (54) this season.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Jamill Williams leads Jacksonville State for receptions (31) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Western Kentucky ranks 137th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (9.7).
- Western Kentucky ranks 135th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (-5.1).
- Jacksonville State ranks T7th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (2.2).
- Jacksonville State ranks 12th among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (7.3).