In this article we will formulate a Kentucky vs South Alabama prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 26th at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 4 matchup.
Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview
The Kentucky Wildcats are 2-1 this season after they defeated Texas A&M by a score of 31-21 last week. Kentucky was tied 7-7 at halftime, but they scored 21 points in the third quarter and added three in the fourth for the win. The Wildcats were out gained by a total of 423-408, went 3-9 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-0 in the game. Kenny Minchey threw for 252 yards and two touchdowns, while DJ Miller caught five passes for 96 yards. CJ Baxter rushed 19 times for 87 yards and two scores in the win.
Prior to that game, Kentucky lost to Alabama by a score of 45-17, but did beat Youngstown State by a score of 45-13 before that. The Wildcats have scored 31.0 points per game with 233.0 passing yards and 141.3 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 26.3 points against per game this season. Kenny Minchey has thrown for 699 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception this season.
South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview
The South Alabama Jaguars are 2-1 this year after they defeated Ohio by a score of 41-36 last week. South Alabama led 24-7 at halftime and added 17 points in the second half to hang on for the win. The Jaguars out gained Ohio by a total of 458-387, went 8-15 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-0 in the game. Jared Hollins threw for 192 yards and one touchdown, while Jeremiah Jones-Thomas caught six passes for 74 yards. Keenan Phillips rushed 18 times for 116 yards and one score in the win.
Prior to that victory, South Alabama lost to Tulane by a score of 28-24, but did beat SELA by a score of 39-14 before that. The Jaguars have scored 34.7 points per game with 214.0 passing yards and 229.7 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 26.0 points against per game this season. Bishop Davenport is the starting QB, but he is dealing with an injury, so we may see Jared Hollins once again.
Why the Kentucky Wildcats will win
- Kentucky has won 24 of its last 25 games against non-conference opponents at Kroger Field.
- South Alabama has lost each of its last four games against opponents from the Southeastern Conference.
- The favorite has covered the spread in four of Kentucky’s last five games at Kroger Field.
- The home team has won the first half in each of South Alabama’s last six games.
- Kentucky has won the first quarter in eight of its last nine games against non-conference opponents at Kroger Field.
Why the South Alabama Jaguars will win
- Kentucky has lost seven of its last eight games against teams from Alabama.
- Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four home games against teams from Alabama.
- South Alabama has covered the spread in three of its last four road games.
- South Alabama has won the first quarter in six of its last nine September games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Kentucky’s last six completed games against opponents from the Sun Belt Conference have gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of South Alabama’s last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Kentucky Wildcats Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 4, Jordan Castell ranks T8th amongst FBS players for interceptions (2) this season.
South Alabama Jaguars Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 4, Davis Little ranks T10th amongst FBS players for made field goals (6) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Kentucky ranks 134th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (22.6).
- Kentucky ranks 127th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (-5.0).
- Two of South Alabama’s three games this season have been decided by a margin of seven points or less – equal-most amongst FBS teams.
- South Alabama ranks 2nd among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (36:46).
Kentucky vs South Alabama Prediction
Kentucky comes into this matchup after a huge upset win over Texas A&M on the road, which was a much needed bounce back from the previous loss to Alabama. The Wildcats held A&M to just 21 points and their offense did enough for the win. South Alabama picked up a nice win over Ohio last time out, but this is a huge step up in competition for a team that lost to Tulane two weeks ago. Take Kentucky to win big and cover here.