The Toledo Rockets and the Kentucky Wildcats meet Saturday in college football action from Kroger Field. Here’s a Kentucky vs Toledo prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Kentucky vs Toledo pick.
Toledo Rockets Betting Preview
The Rockets certainly had their ups and downs during their 2024 campaign, but the good news is that the team finished on a high note—though it was indeed a very hard-fought high note. Toledo underperformed overall from some fairly high preseason expectations and ended up with a middling 4-4 MAC record alongside an 8-5 mark overall. The Rockets were able to win their first three straight games (including a nice victory over Mississippi State on September 14), but they were only able to win consecutive games once the rest of the way, skidding to a 4-5 finish. That result would put Toledo behind Miami-OH, Ohio, Buffalo, Bowling Green and Western Michigan in the standings. In the GameAbove Sports Bowl, the Rockets were able to outlast Pittsburgh in a six-overtime thriller 48-46 to cap the season.
Toledo has some consistency returning to the sidelines this year, as head coach Jason Candle enters his 10th season at the helm. He’ll retain his quartet of offensive and defensive coordinators, each in his sixth year with the Rockets. Hopes are once again inflated for the Rockets this season, as they were ranked first in the MAC preseason coaches poll. Toledo will certainly have some competition at the top though; both Miami-OH and Ohio should be right in the mix as well.
Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview
Over on the Kentucky side, they didn’t have the greatest year in 2025 amid a very difficult conference slate. The Wildcats would limp to a 4-8 overall record and a rough 1-7 mark in the Southeastern Conference. Kentucky finished ahead of only Mississippi State (0-8) with that record, one game behind both Oklahoma and Auburn. Things started out fairly well for the Wildcats, as they went 3-2 over the first five games. Kentucky was only able to win one game (against Murray State on November 16) the rest of the way however, finishing off on a 1-6 clip.
Mark Stoops is back for his 13th year as Kentucky head coach and he’s got his work cut out for him. Rejoining Stoops are second-year offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan and defensive coordinator Brad White (seventh season). This will be a proverbial make-or-break season for that group, and it’ll be an uphill battle to show some improvement. Kentucky’s got one of the toughest schedules in all of college football and may not be able to compete in a very, very difficult conference. There are around five winnable games on the schedule, so making a bowl game may very well be out of the question. That said, the Wildcats should be competitive in their first few outings if they can get things going quickly.
Why the Kentucky Wildcats will win
- Kentucky has won 20 of its last 21 games against non-conference opponents at Kroger Field.
- Toledo has lost six of its last seven road openers.
- Kentucky has covered the spread in each of its last four completed season openers as a favorite.
- Toledo has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five road games.
- Kentucky has won the first quarter in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
- Kentucky has won the first half in five of its last six games against opponents from the Mid-American Conference.
Why the Toledo Rockets will win
- Toledo has won each of its last three games as an underdog.
- Kentucky has lost three of its last four games as a favorite.
- Toledo has covered the spread in each of its last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Toledo has won the first half in each of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
- Toledo has won the first quarter in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Toledo’s last seven road openers have gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of Kentucky’s last six completed home openers have gone OVER the total points line.
Kentucky vs Toledo Prediction
I’ll stick with Toledo here. The Rockets lost some star power over the offseason including WR Jerjuan Newton, DB Maxen Hook and DT Darius Alexander. That said, they’ve got a returning QB in Tucker Gleason who is coming off a nice effort last year. Gleason threw for 24 touchdowns and a 60.5 percent completion rate and legged out seven rush scores. Six of the top nine receivers are back, so he’ll have plenty of options in order to keep the chains moving. The returning experience will be invaluable to Toledo, and I think it’ll serve them well right out of the gate.
As for Kentucky, they’ve got quite a bit of turnover themselves. That said, the Wildcats brought in some intriguing talent for the roster this year, namely QB Zach Calzada (Incarnate Word and Texas A&M). The bad news is that Kentucky is just 2-12 versus SEC opponents at home in their last 14 games and they’re facing a daunting schedule this year. The Wildcats should look okay here, but I don’t think they’ll cover.