Louisville vs North Carolina Prediction
In this Louisville vs North Carolina prediction for this College Football Week 11 matchup on Saturday, November 14th, Louisville is coming as -3.5 road favorites. Louisville has a better overall record and has been in very good form lately, with four consecutive wins and 3-1 against the spread. They will be facing a North Carolina team that has lost two of its last three games and has been bad at home with a 1-3 record. The Cardinals have the second-best offense in the entire nation and are averaging 13.7 points per game more than the Tar Heels and that would be enough to propel them to a victory by 4+ points. Take Louisville and lay the points.
North Carolina Tar Heels Preview
North Carolina has a 5-4 record and a 2-3 conference record, sitting on the 9th place of the ACC, while having a 1-3 home record, a 3-1 away record, and a 1-0 neutral record. They are coming off a 38-21 road win against UConn, following a 35-38 home loss against Miami and a 30-31 home loss against Syracuse, and will face Virginia and NC State next.
Offensively, North Carolina averages 27.1 points per game, while defensively, they allow 22.8 points per game. North Carolina averages 353 total yards per game (238.8 passing and 114.2 rushing), while allowing 377 total yards per game (149.8 rushing and 227.2 passing). They average 61.3 plays per game and 5.8 yards per play on offense, while allowing 71.7 plays per game and 5.3 yards per play on defense. North Carolina averages 20.7 first downs per game on offense and 21 first downs per game on defense. They average 7.7 yards per pass attempt and 3.8 yards per rush attempt. North Carolina has scored 31 touchdowns this season (18 passing and 11 rushing). They are converting 45.95% of their third downs and 76.92% of their fourth downs. They have thrown 6 interceptions this season, while their defense has intercepted 7 passes.
Billy Edwards Jr. leads North Carolina with 2,127 passing yards with 65.2% completed passes and 18 touchdowns. Benjamin Hall leads the team in rushing yards with 377, while Jordan Shipp has a team-high 642 receiving yards and 50 receptions. Defensively, Derek McDonald has a team-high 89 total tackles (31 of them solo), while Xavier Lewis leads the team with 7 sacks.
Louisville Cardinals Preview
Louisville has a 6-3 record and a 5-2 conference record, sitting on the 3rd place of the ACC, while having a 4-1 home record, a 2-1 away record, and a 0-1 neutral record. They are coming off a 44-17 road win against Georgia Tech, following a 52-24 home win against Stanford and a 34-26 road win against Syracuse, and will face Pitt and Kentucky next.
Offensively, Louisville averages 40.8 points per game, while defensively, they allow 25.9 points per game. Louisville averages 488.1 total yards per game (260.1 passing and 228 rushing), while allowing 404.4 total yards per game (138.6 rushing and 265.9 passing). They average 62.9 plays per game and 7.8 yards per play on offense, while allowing 74.6 plays per game and 5.4 yards per play on defense. Louisville averages 21.9 first downs per game on offense and 22 first downs per game on defense. They average 9.7 yards per pass attempt and 6.3 yards per rush attempt. Louisville has scored 48 touchdowns this season (15 passing and 32 rushing). They are converting 44% of their third downs and 0% of their fourth downs. They have thrown 3 interceptions this season, while their defense has intercepted 9 passes.
Lincoln Kienholz leads Louisville with 2,276 passing yards with 67.8% completed passes and 14 touchdowns. Isaac Brown leads the team in rushing yards with 745, while Tre Richardson has a team-high 685 receiving yards and 44 receptions. Defensively, Stanquan Clark has a team-high 64 total tackles (19 of them solo), while Clev Lubin leads the team with 7 sacks.
Louisville Cardinals @ North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Trends: Week 11
Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win
- The underdog has covered the spread in each of North Carolina’s last four games at Kenan Stadium.
- Louisville has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games in North Carolina.
- Louisville has lost the first half in each of its last three games in North Carolina.
Why the Louisville Cardinals will win
- Louisville has won each of its last four games.
- North Carolina has lost 12 of its last 13 games as an underdog in North Carolina.
- North Carolina has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 November home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Louisville has covered the spread in six of its last seven November games as a road favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Louisville has won the first half in four of its last five November games as a road favorite.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Louisville’s last four November games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of North Carolina’s last four November games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
North Carolina Tar Heels Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Jordan Shipp leads North Carolina for receptions (50) this season.
Louisville Cardinals Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Keyjuan Brown ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Yards Per Carry (7.8) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- North Carolina ranks 121st among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (114.2).
- North Carolina ranks T119th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (-2.6).
- Louisville is one of two FBS teams to score 25+ points in every game this season.
- Louisville ranks T5th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+6.9).