Missouri State vs Western Kentucky Prediction Football Picks Today 9/27/25

In this article we will formulate a Missouri State vs Western Kentucky prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 27th at Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Springfield, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 5 matchup. 

Missouri State Bears Betting Preview

The Missouri State Bears are 2-2 (0-0) this year after they defeated UT Martin by a score of 42-10 in their last game. Missouri State led 35-0 at halftime, but they were outscored 10-7 in the second half in the blowout victory. The Bears out gained UTM by a total of 417-221, went 5-10 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a margin of 3-1 in the game. Jacob Clark went 20-28 for 271 yards and three touchdowns, while Shomari Lawrence rushed eight times for 65 yards and one score. Dash Luke led the receivers with nine catches for 110 yards and one touchdown in the game. The Missouri State defense recorded one sack and six tackles for loss in the victory. 

Missouri State also has a win over Marshall by one point, but did lose to USC and SMU. The Bears are averaging 21.5 points per game with 277.3 passing yards and 83.5 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 32.8 points against per game this season. Jacob Clark has completed 66.7% of his passes for 1,052 yards, eight touchdowns, and six interceptions, while Dash Luke has caught 19 passes for 239 yards and two scores. Shomari Lawrence has led the rushing attack with 50 carries for 208 yards and one touchdown this year. 

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Preview

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are 3-1 (1-0) this season after they defeated Nevada by a score of 31-16 last time out. Western Kentucky was tied at three after the first quarter and they trailed 10-3 at the half, before scoring 28 points in the second half to steal the win. The Hilltoppers were out gained by a total of 372-361, went 5-12 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a margin of 3-2 in the game. Maverick McIvor went 22-33 for 216 yards and one interception, while George Hart rushed 11 times for 63 yards and one touchdown. Noah Meyers was the leading receiver for the Hilltoppers with six receptions for 81 yards in the win. The WKU defense recorded zero sacks and five tackles for loss in the game. 

Western Kentucky also has wins over Sam Houston and North Alabama, but did lose to Toledo by a score of 45-21 in their third game. The Hilltoppers are averaging 37.0 points per game with 322.5 passing yards and 118.3 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 22.8 points against per game this season. Maverick McIvor has completed 66.7% of his passes for 1,157 yards, 10 touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Moussa Barry has caught 14 passes for 222 yards. Marvis Parrish is the leading rusher for WKU with 33 carries for 137 yards this season. 

Why Western Kentucky will beat Missouri State

• Western Kentucky has won each of its last nine September games as a favorite.
• The favorite has covered the spread in each of Western Kentucky’s last six games.
• Western Kentucky has won the first quarter in 10 of its last 13 games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Five of Western Kentucky’s last six road games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of Missouri State’s last three games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Missouri State ranks 135th among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (14.8).
• Missouri State ranks 133rd among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters this season (-7.8).
• Western Kentucky has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 15+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
• Western Kentucky ranks 2nd among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+12.3).

Missouri State vs Western Kentucky Prediction 

Western Kentucky has opened the season by winning three of their first four games and their passing offense is off to a hot start once again. Missouri State lost by 60 points to USC to open the season, but they have been much more competitive in their last three games. I do think the home field advantage will keep the Bears in this game in the first half, but I don’t see them doing enough against this Western Kentucky offense through four quarters. Take the Hilltoppers to cover on the road here. 

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