In this article we will formulate a Navy vs Air Force prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 4th at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 6 matchup.
Navy Midshipmen Betting Preview
The Navy Midshipmen are 4-0 this year after they defeated Rice by a score of 21-13 in their last game. Navy led 14-0 at halftime and 21-3 in the fourth quarter, but did allow the last 10 points to make the game closer than it was. The Midshipmen out gained Rice by a total of 455-234, went 7-12 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 1-0 in the game. Blake Horvath went 8-13 for 172 yards and one interception, while also rushing for 110 yards and two scores on 21 carries. Alex Tecza led the Navy receivers with three receptions for 53 yards. The Navy defense recorded two sacks and seven tackles for loss in the game.
In their first three games, Navy defeated VMI, UAB, and Tulsa. The Midshipmen are averaging 38.3 points per game with 131.5 passing yards and 352.3 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 16.8 points against per game this season. Blake Horvath has completed 68.4% of his passes for 500 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Eli Heidenreich has caught 12 passes for 170 yards and one touchdown. Alex Tecza has led the rushing attack with 376 yards and four scores on 56 carries this year.
Air Force Falcons Betting Preview
The Air Force Falcons are 1-3 this season after they lost to Hawaii by a score of 44-35 last week. Air Force trailed 17-7 after halftime, but they did score 21 points in the fourth quarter, before falling short in their comeback attempt. The Falcons were out gained by a total of 535-494, went 3-6 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 1-0 in the game. Liam Szarka went 10-12 for 278 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, while also rushing for 139 yards on 17 carries. Cade Harris led the Air Force receivers with three catches for 116 yards and one score. The Falcons defense recorded one sack and six tackles for loss in the defeat.
In their first three games, Air Force defeated Bucknell, but lost to Utah State and Boise State after that. The Falcons are averaging 38.8 points per game with 215.5 passing yards and 254.3 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 38.8 points against per game this season. Liam Szarka has completed 67.4% of his passes for 638 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Cade Harris has 16 receptions for 439 yards and two scores. Liam Szarka has also led the rushing attack with 51 carries for 296 yards and four touchdowns this season.
Why Navy will beat Air Force
- Navy has won each of its last 10 games against non-AP-ranked teams at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
- Air Force has lost four of its last five October games at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
- Air Force has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five October games as an underdog.
- Navy has covered the spread in each of its last three October games as a favorite.
- Navy has won the first half in 16 of its last 21 games against non-conference opponents at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
Why Air Force will beat Navy
- Air Force has won three of its last four games as an underdog.
- Navy has lost four of its last five games against opponents from the Mountain West Conference.
- Navy has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against non-conference opponents at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
- The road team has covered the spread in each of the last four games between Air Force and Navy.
- Navy has lost the first half in 16 of its last 20 games against non-conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Eight of Navy’s last nine October home games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of Air Force’s last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Navy ranks 1st among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (352.3).
- Navy ranks 1st among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (61.7).
- Air Force ranks 2nd among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (13.8).
- Air Force ranks T135th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (11.3).
Navy vs Air Force Prediction
Air Force has had some struggles to start the season, especially on defense, as they have allowed 44, 49, and 49 points in their last three games. The Falcons have been solid offensively, but need to find a way to get some stops. Navy is looking for their fifth win in a row to start the year, but they have played a pretty weak schedule. I know these military academy games normally go under the total, but I think both offenses are going to move the ball easily. Take the over in this contest, as the Air Force defense gets shredded once again.
David Racey is 48-36 (57%) in College Football this season and is #1 on the leaderboard. Click here for his premium plays for the week!