NC State vs Louisville Prediction Football Picks 9-29-23

The Louisville Cardinals and the NC State Wolfpack meet in a week 5 ACC conference college football matchup from Carter-Finley Stadium on Friday night.

Louisville Routs BC To Remain Unbeaten

The Louisville Cardinals come into this one at 4-0 on the year after demolishing Boston College last time out by a final score of 56-28. Jack Plummer has thrown for 1,120 yards, 10 touchdowns and 4 INTs on 67% passing while Jahwar Jordan has a team-high 479 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns. Jamari Thrash has a team-high 19 receptions for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns while three more Cardinals have 100+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, TJ Quinn and Devin Neal each have a team-high 21 total tackles while Ashton Gillotte has a team-high 3 sacks this season.


Louisville Cardinals Team Facts

The favorite has won each of Louisville’s last nine games.
Louisville has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five road games against conference opponents.
Seven of Louisville’s last nine games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

NC State Sneaks By Virginia

The NC State Wolfpack snuck by Virginia to grab back-to-back wins and to improve to 3-1 on the year after a 24-21 win over the Cavaliers last time out. Brennan Armstrong’s thrown for 859 yards, 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 60% passing while also rushing for a team-high 225 yards and 3 TDs this season. Kevin Concepcion leads NC State’s receivers with 22 receptions for 238 yards and 2 TDs while Julian Gray and Porter Rooks each have 100+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Payton Wilson has a team-high 46 total tackles while Red Hibbler has a team-high 3.5 sacks. As a unit, NC State has 11 sacks and 4 interceptions this season.

NC State Wolfpack Team Facts

NC State has won 20 of its last 21 home games in September.
NC State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last nine games against non-AP-ranked teams.
NC State has won the first quarter in four of its last five home games against conference opponents.
NC State has won the first half in five of its last six games against conference opponents.
Each of NC State’s last five games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

NC State ranked 4th among FBS teams for Q1 points allowed per game last season (2.3).
NC State ranked 11th among FBS teams for H1 points allowed per game last season (8.5).
Louisville ranked 7th among FBS teams for Q4 points allowed per game last season (4.2).
Louisville ranked 8th among FBS teams for H2 points allowed per game last season (7.8).

Chris’ Pick

I’m rolling with the over in this one. Louisville’s shown signs of being solid offensively this season, but that being said, the Cardinals have also had a tendency to let teams hang around, just ask Georgia Tech in the opener. NC State hasn’t been flashy, but this team can put points on the board and Brennan Armstrong has a lot of tools to be able to bring the Wolfpack up and down the field. I think this one ends up being a track meet, so give me the over here.

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