The SMU Mustangs and the Nevada Wolf Pack meet in week 1 college football action from Mackay Stadium on Saturday night. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Nevada vs SMU Prediction.
SMU Team Preview
The SMU Mustangs come into the 2024 season making their debut in the ACC after a really strong 2023 campaign where the Mustangs finished 11-3, their most wins in a season since 1982, while also winning their first AAC title with an 8-0 conference record and a 26-14 win over Tulane in the AAC championship game. The season culminated in a loss to the Boston College Eagles in the Fenway Bowl by a final score of 23-14. Preston Stone is back at QB after throwing for 3,197 yards, 28 touchdowns and 6 INTs last season and all of his receiving weapons are back including leading receiver Jake Bailey and tight end RJ Maryland who had 7 touchdowns while finishing 2nd on SMU in receptions.
The SMU backfield is also loaded with the three-headed monster of LJ Johnson, Jaylan Knighton and Camar Wheaton. On defense, the unit is almost entirely intact, with 10 of the top 11 tacklers returning and Elijah Roberts back at defensive end after leading the Mustangs with 10 sacks last year. The Mustangs also hit the transfer portal hard to load up the defensive front, while Kobe Wilson and Ahmad Walker will anchor the linebackers and Isaiah Nwokobia and Jonathan McGill will star in the SMU secondary.
Why the SMU Mustangs will win
- Nevada has lost each of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
- SMU has won 11 of its last 12 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Nevada has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 11 games at Mackay Stadium.
- SMU has covered the spread in four of its last five season openers.
Nevada Team Preview
The Nevada Wolf Pack will be out to start the 2024 season with a bang after back-to-back disappointing seasons under Ken Aiken, finishing 2-10 for the second straight year. Jeff Choate comes in after turning Montana State into an FCS Playoff team before taking over the Texas defensive coordinator job over the last three seasons. Brendon Lewis is the incumbent starting QB, but Chubba Purdy comes in from Florida State to challenge for the starting job. Whoever is determined to be QB1 will have their work cut out for them with a completely new receiving group.
All 7 receivers that logged at least 100 receiving yards with the Wolf Pack last season are no longer with the team, but Nate Burleson II is expected to have a clean bill of health and lead the way for Nevada’s aerial attack. Sean Dollars and Pat Garwo are expected to be the 1-2 punch in Nevada’s backfield, with Garwo having a 1,000 yard rushing season under his belt for Boston College back in 2021. On defense, Kaden Johnson transfers in to lead the Wolf Pack’s defensive line, while Drue Watts is back after leading sack man Marcel Walker-Burgess hit the transfer portal. KK Meier is expected to lead the secondary at corner and Kitan Crawford and Keyshawn Cobb are likely the pairing at safety for Nevada this season.
Why the Nevada Wolf Pack will win
- Nevada has won three of its last four season openers as an underdog.
- SMU has lost six of its last eight games against non-conference opponents.
- Nevada has covered the spread in six of its last seven season openers.
- SMU has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last nine games against non-conference opponents.
SMU vs. Nevada Prediction
I’m on SMU here. It’s a massive number for a road game to start the year, but it’s basically last year’s SMU team that was a powerhouse in the AAC and is a strong candidate to make some noise in their ACC debut, against a Nevada team that was a massive disappointment last year and one that’s pretty much building from the ground up from day one this season. SMU thrashed better teams last year than what they’re up against here, with 8 of their 11 wins coming by 18+ points last year. Nevada was crushed early and often last year and lost to Idaho, an FCS team, by 27 points at home. Yikes. Give me SMU big.