In this article we will formulate a New Mexico State vs New Mexico prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 26th at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 4 matchup.
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview
The New Mexico State Aggies are 1-2 this season after they lost to Hawaii by a score of 29-19 in their last game. New Mexico State trailed 19-13 at halftime, but they tied the game at 19 early in the third, before allowing the last 10 points for the loss. The Aggies were out gained by a total of 420-380, went 4-10 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 3-1 in the game. Trey Hedden threw for 256 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, while TK King caught four passes for 67 yards and one score. James Jones rushed 13 times for 78 yards and one touchdown in the loss.
Prior to that game, New Mexico State defeated Mercyhurst by a score of 51-14, but lost to FSU by a score of 34-17 before that. The Aggies have scored 29.0 points per game with 282.0 passing yards and 135.7 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 25.7 points against per game this season. Trey Hedden has thrown for 781 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions this season.
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview
The New Mexico Lobos are 2-1 this year after they lost to Oklahoma by a score of 14-6 last week. New Mexico trailed 7-6 at halftime, but they failed to score in the second half in the close loss. The Lobos were out gained by a total of 299-185, went 3-14 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 3-0 in the game. Toa Fa’avae threw for 79 yards, while Cade Keith caught five passes for 78 yards. Kiefer Sibley rushed nine times for 41 yards in the loss.
Prior to that game, New Mexico defeated Mercyhurst by a score of 70-7 and Central Michigan by a score of 38-7. The Lobos have scored 38.0 points per game with 149.3 passing yards and 187.0 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 9.3 points against per game this season. We should see Moga and Fa’avae at the quarterback spot in this game.
Why the New Mexico State Aggies will win
- New Mexico has lost six of its last nine games as a road favorite.
- New Mexico State has won five of its last six home games against non-conference opponents.
- New Mexico State has covered the spread in five of its last six games as a home underdog.
- New Mexico State has won the first half in five of its last six games against teams from New Mexico.
- The home team has won the first quarter in five of New Mexico State’s last six games.
Why the New Mexico Lobos will win
- New Mexico has won each of its last nine games in New Mexico.
- New Mexico State has lost each of its last six games against opponents from the Mountain West Conference.
- New Mexico State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games against opponents from the Mountain West Conference.
- New Mexico has covered the spread in each of its last five games in September.
- The favorite has won the first half in each of New Mexico’s last seven games.
- New Mexico has won the first quarter in four of its last five games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Each of New Mexico State’s last four games as a home underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of New Mexico’s last four games against teams from New Mexico have gone OVER the total points line.
New Mexico State Aggies Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 4, Nick Session ranks T8th amongst FBS players for interceptions (2) this season.
New Mexico Lobos Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 4, Tavian Combs ranks T8th amongst FBS players for interceptions (2) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- New Mexico State ranks 16th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (52.5).
- New Mexico State ranks T112th among FBS teams for H1 opponent points per game this season (16.7).
- New Mexico ranks T1st among FBS teams for interceptions this season (7).
- New Mexico is the only FBS team to ranks top 5 for both interceptions and sacks this season.
New Mexico State vs New Mexico Prediction
New Mexico comes into this matchup after playing great defense against Oklahoma last week, but they only managed six points in the loss. The Lobos are a very good team, but they lost their starting QB prior to the season and the passing game has struggled. New Mexico State is 0-2 in FBS games, but they will be at home. The Aggies had turnover issues against Hawaii in their last game, but did cover against FSU in week zero. This is a rivalry game, but I like New Mexico and their defense to cover here.