The Louisville Cardinals and the Ole Miss Rebels meet in week 1 college football action from Nissan Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Louisville Cardinals vs. Ole Miss Rebels Prediction.
Louisville Cardinals Team Preview
The Louisville Cardinals come into the 2026 season looking to keep their foot on the gas after going 9-4 in 2025 with a 4-4 mark in ACC play. The Cardinals would get an invite to the Boca Raton Bowl, where they would knock off Toledo 27-22. Lincoln Kienholz is taking over at QB with more of a ground game than the recent Louisville QB game has given, and Kienholz has another weapon alongside him in the Cardinal backfield in Isaac Brown, who had 884 rushing yards and averaged almost 8.8 yards per carry. On defense, Clev Lubin is back up front after logging 8.5 sacks and 13.5 TFLs while AJ Green had 6 sacks last year. Stanquan Clark is back in the linebacker room while TJ Capers is back after being one of Louisville’s leading tacklers.
Ole Miss Rebels Recap
The Ole Miss Rebels come into 2026 looking to make some noise in the first full year under Pete Golding after finishing 2025 with a record of 13-2 including 7-1 in SEC conference play. The Rebels would knock off Tulane 41-10 in the first round of the college football playoff and take down Georgia 39-34 in the quarterfinals before falling in the national semifinals against Miami 31-27. Trinidad Chambliss is back at QB after completing 66.1% of his passes with 30 TDs to 3 INTs last season. Bryan Brown has to reload the defense for Ole Miss after losing a lot of last year’s production, but if 2025 is any indication, the Rebels should be just fine.
Louisville Cardinals @ Ole Miss Rebels Betting Trends: Week 1
Why the Ole Miss Rebels will win
- Ole Miss has won each of its last 13 games as a favorite.
- Louisville has lost each of its last six games against AP-ranked teams at neutral venues.
- The team ranked 9th in the AP Poll has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games.
- Louisville has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games as an AP-ranked team at neutral venues.
- Ole Miss has won the first quarter in eight of its last nine games.
- Ole Miss has won the first half in 28 of its last 30 September games as an AP-ranked team.
Why the Louisville Cardinals will win
- Louisville has won three of its last four games as an underdog against top-10 AP-ranked teams.
- Ole Miss has lost 10 of its last 13 games as a top-10 AP-ranked team against an AP-ranked team.
- Louisville has covered the spread in four of its last five games as an underdog.
- Ole Miss has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 13 games as a top-10 AP-ranked team against an AP-ranked team.
- Louisville has won the first quarter in three of its last four games as an underdog against top-10 AP-ranked teams.
- The team ranked 24th in the AP Poll has won the first half in five of its last six games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Ole Miss’ last six games as a favorite against AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of Louisville’s last 12 games against non-conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Ole Miss Rebels Player Prop Facts
- Trinidad Chambliss has recorded 275+ passing yards in six consecutive games – longest streak in the FBS.
Louisville Cardinals Player Prop Facts
- Isaac Brown ranked 1st amongst qualified players for Yards Per Carry (8.8) last season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Ole Miss recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 10 points or less of any FBS team last season (4).
- Ole Miss ranked 1st among FBS teams for 1st downs last season (383).
- Louisville ranked T11th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game last season (3.0).
- Louisville ranked 11th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against last season (38.5).
Louisville Cardinals vs. Ole Miss Rebels Prediction
I’m on Ole Miss here. Brian Brohm as an underdog for Louisville has been an ATM over the years, but I think this is a stacked Ole Miss team with maybe the best QB in the country in Chambliss. I do think Louisville remains competitive here, but all in all, I think Ole Miss wins this one by double digits so give me the Rebels.