Oregon State and California meet Saturday in college football action from Reser Stadium. Here’s an Oregon State Beavers vs California Golden Bears prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Oregon State vs California pick.
Can Oregon State Shock People?
Oregon State was inconsistent at best last season, and they were only able to muster up a 5-7 record. There hasn’t been a whole lot of buzz around this team, but on paper, this team looks like they are better, even if it’s just a little bit, and that starts with their quarterback under center. Oregon State went big game hunting in the transfer portal, and they landed a good one in former Duke Blue Devils star Maalik Murphy. Last season he ended up throwing for 2,933 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. The turnovers were the only real downside to his game, and he needs to be better at taking care of the ball.
On defense, there are some key players back, including defensive back Skyler Thomas, who finished last season with 81 tackles and one interception. Linebacker Dexter Foster probably doesn’t get the attention that he deserves, but if Oregon State is going to have a strong year on that side of the ball, he’s going to be a reason why.
Why Oregon State Will Beat California
- California has lost each of its last five games in Oregon.
- Oregon State has won each of its last four home openers.
- California has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games as an underdog against teams from Oregon.
- Oregon State has covered the spread in four of its last five games as a favorite against teams from California.
Can Cal Win the Close Games?
California finished last season with a 6-6 record overall but there were a couple of close games that didn’t end up going their way. Four of the losses ended up being by a total of nine points. To try and fix the issues, Cal went out in the transfer portal to try and improve, and the offense looks better.
Many believed that Devin Brown was going to be the starting quarterback this season, but the coaching staff shocked many when they decided to go with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. He was a four-star recruit coming out of high school, and even though he doesn’t have the experience, there is a ton of buzz about what he’s going to be able to do this year. He has some elite arm talent that is going to make life difficult for opposing teams. On defense, Cal has a couple of question marks, but the strength really looks like the front four, who hope to spend a ton of time in opposing teams’ backfields. Ryan McCulloch is the top linebacker, and he could end up being one of the top in the conference this season by the time it’s all said and done.
Why Oregon State Will Beat California
- Oregon State has lost each of its last three games as a favorite.
- California has won four of its last six road openers as an underdog.
- California has covered the spread in eight of its last nine road openers.
- Oregon State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
Matchup/League Facts
- Oregon State ranked 121st among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters last season (-3.1).
- Oregon State ranked 120th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game last season (3.7).
- California ranked 14th among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game last season (109.8).
- California ranked 16th among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game last season (5.3).
Oregon State vs California Prediction
This Oregon State and California game is one of the games I am most excited for this weekend in from a pure quality football game, but I can’t say I am all that excited about betting it. On one side, we have Murphy and Oregon State who sometimes have turnover issues. On the other side, if we have Sagoplutele who looks like the real deal but is young, and there are probably going to be some nerves. That being said, I think the more talented quarterback is with California, and that is going to be the difference here. He’s going to settle right into this game, and he’s going to lead the Golden Bears offense to plenty of success. Back California to cover the spread here.