The North Texas Mean Green and the South Alabama Jaguars meet Saturday in college football action from Hancock Whitney Stadium. Here’s a South Alabama vs North Texas prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best South Alabama vs North Texas pick.
North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview
The Mean Green posted a losing record last season, going 5-7 overall with a 3-5 mark in American Athletic Conference play. North Texas ended up near the middle of the pack in the standings with that result, just ahead of UAB and Florida Atlantic—both with the same conference record.
Mean Green head coach Eric Morris enters his second season in 2024. He’ll have a pretty good offense—on paper at least. QB Chandler Morris should have good results with Landon Sides and Blair Conwright. RB Ikaika Ragsdale will keep the chains moving as well. The big question is defense, though.
South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview
Over on the Jaguars’ side, they’re coming off a 2023 season in which they went 7-6 overall and an even 4-4 in Sun Belt games. South Alabama finished in fourth place in the West Division with that mark. In the 68 Ventures Bowl, the Jaguars were able to defeat Eastern Michigan 59-10 to finish on a high note.
Former offensive coordinator Major Applewhite moves to head coach for the Jaguars this season, and he’ll have a pair of new coordinators at his side. He takes over a team that posted a respectable 440.5 yards per game last year, along with 326.8 yards per game allowed on defense.
Why the South Alabama Jaguars will win
- The favorite has won each of North Texas’ last nine games.
- North Texas has lost each of its last four games against opponents from the Sun Belt Conference.
- South Alabama has covered the spread in seven of its last eight season openers.
- North Texas has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four season openers as an underdog.
- South Alabama has won the first quarter in five of its last six games against non-conference opponents at Hancock Whitney Stadium.
- South Alabama has won the first half in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents at Hancock Whitney Stadium.
Why the North Texas Mean Green will win
- North Texas has won six of its last seven season openers.
- North Texas has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games.
- North Texas has won the first quarter in seven of its last eight games against non-conference opponents.
- North Texas has won the first half in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of North Texas’ last eight games against non-conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of South Alabama’s last three home games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- South Alabama ranked 10th among FBS teams for Q3 points allowed per game last season (3.3).
- South Alabama ranked T14th among FBS teams for Q4 win percentage last season (.615).
- North Texas ranked 8th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game last season (10.1).
- North Texas ranked 10th among FBS teams for H2 points per game last season (17.8).
South Alabama vs North Texas Prediction
I’ll probably stick with North Texas. This should be a pretty fun matchup regardless, though. The Mean Green should be strong on the offensive side of the ball once again this season. North Texas posted a conference-high 495.8 yards per game in 2023, including 304.7 yards per game through the air.
Defensively, the Mean Green are another story. Last year they ranked dead last in the conference in yards per game allowed with 476.4 total. The major Achilles heel was rush defense with 255.2 yards per game. That’ll be a focal point for improvement in 2024, and if North Texas can pull it off they’ll have some success.