UCF vs Baylor Prediction
Baylor comes into this matchup on a two game losing streak and they have scored 24 points or fewer in three of their last four games. UCF has lost two of their last three, but they did just upset BYU in overtime last week. The Knights have allowed 27+ points in four of their last five games, so Lagway and the Baylor offense should find some success. I think we are going to see plenty of scoring and I like the over in this one.
UCF Knights Betting Preview
The UCF Knights are 4-3 (2-2) this year after they defeated BYU by a score of 39-31 in double overtime last week. UCF led 17-14 at halftime, but they only scored seven points in the second half, before getting the win in double OT. The Knights out gained BYU by a total of 463-373, went 9-16 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Keyone Jenkins threw for 293 yards and three touchdowns, while Tyren Hornes caught six passes for 137 yards. Duke Watson rushed 15 times for 94 yards in the game.
Prior to that win, UCF lost to Oklahoma State by a score of 42-28 and Houston by a score of 27-17. The Knights have scored 32.7 points per game with 207.0 passing yards and 163.3 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 23.0 points against per game this season. Keyone Jenkins has thrown for 1,099 yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions, while Duke Watson has 85 carries for 577 yards and three scores this year.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
The Baylor Bears are 4-3 (2-2) this season after they lost to Kansas by a score of 25-24 in their last game. Baylor was tied 7-7 at halftime and they led 21-10 to start the fourth quarter, but they allowed 15 points in the fourth for the loss. The Bears were out gained by a total of 421-358, went 5-15 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. DJ Lagway threw for 236 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while also rushing 11 times for 47 yards. Gavin Freeman led the receivers with nine receptions for 123 yards in the loss.
Prior to that game, Baylor lost to TCU by a score of 17-6, but did beat Arizona State by a score of 55-19 before that. The Bears have scored 29.1 points per game with 278.9 passing yards and 146.1 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 16.1 points against per game this season. DJ Lagway has thrown for 1,352 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions this season.
Why the UCF Knights will win
- The home team has won each of UCF’s last 10 games.
- Baylor has lost four of its last five road games against conference opponents.
- Baylor has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six road games against conference opponents.
- UCF has covered the spread in three of its last four home games.
- UCF has won the first quarter in seven of its last nine home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- UCF has won the first half in each of its last five home games against teams from Texas.
Why the Baylor Bears will win
- UCF has lost four of its last five October games as a favorite.
- Baylor has won four of its last six October games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- The underdog has covered the spread in five of UCF’s last six games at Acrisure Bounce House.
- UCF has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games against teams from Texas.
- The underdog has won the first half in four of UCF’s last five games.
- Baylor has won the first quarter in six of its last eight October games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Six of Baylor’s last seven October road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Four of UCF’s last five games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.
UCF Knights Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 9, Landen Chambers leads UCF for touchdowns (5) this season.
Baylor Bears Player Prop Facts
- Gavin Freeman has recorded 5+ receptions in 12 consecutive games – longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 9.
Matchup/League Facts
- UCF is one of only nine FBS teams undefeated in home games this season (4-0).
- UCF ranks T16th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (9.4).
- Baylor ranks T3rd among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (2.4).
- Baylor ranks T13th among FBS teams for H1 opponent points per game this season (7.1).