The BYU Cougars and the Central Florida Knights will meet on Saturday in college football action from FBC Mortgage Stadium. Here’s a UCF vs BYU prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best UCF vs BYU pick.
BYU Cougars Betting Preview
The Cougars got off to a great start this year with a series of wins—and a couple of close escapes. BYU took out Southern Illinois 41-13, SMU 18-15, Wyoming 34-14, Kansas State 38-9, Baylor 34-28, and Arizona 41-19 over their first six outings.
In the Friday matchup versus Oklahoma State, the Cougars posted a 24-14 advantage in the second half on the way to a 38-35 victory. QB Jake Retzlaff finished with 218 yards, two scores, and two interceptions. LJ Martin led the rush with 120 yards and two touchdowns, while Darius Lassiter had 129 yards and a TD on six catches.
Central Florida Knights Betting Preview
Over on the UCF side, they beat New Hampshire 57-3, Sam Houston 45-14, and TCU 35-34 over their first three games. The Knights would lose the next three games to Colorado 48-21, Florida 24-13, and Cincinnati 19-13 to fall to .500 overall.
In their last outing versus Iowa State, UCF was outscored 24-14 in the second half for a tough loss 38-35. QB Jacurri Brown finished with 62 yards and two interceptions but did have 154 yards and two rush TDs. RJ Harvey added 196 rush yards and two scores of his own on 25 carries.
Why the UCF Knights will win
- UCF has won 41 of its last 49 games at FBC Mortgage Stadium.
- UCF has covered the spread in each of its last five games against AP-ranked teams at FBC Mortgage Stadium.
- BYU has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five October games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
Why the BYU Cougars will win
- BYU has won each of its last seven games.
- UCF has lost each of its last six games in October.
- BYU has covered the spread in eight of its last nine games.
- UCF has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven home games against conference opponents.
- BYU has won the first half in four of its last five games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of BYU’s last six games as a favorite has gone OVER the total points line.
- Three of UCF’s last four games at FBC Mortgage Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- UCF ranks 3rd among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (280.3).
- UCF ranks 132nd among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (83.3).
- BYU ranks 4th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (11.9).
- BYU ranks T6th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (12).
UCF vs BYU Prediction
I’ll lean toward BYU. The Cougars had a pretty close escape in their weekend matchup versus Oklahoma State, but everything worked out in the end. The three interceptions were a glaring error, as were the 269 rushing yards and the 9-of-13 on third downs allowed. BYU did a pretty good job otherwise, posting 473 yards (255 rushing) and 25 first downs with a couple of takeaways on defense.
As for UCF, they went into the fourth quarter with a 28-27 lead on Iowa State but couldn’t finish it off. The Knights posted 354 rush yards but only 14 first downs, 62 passing yards, and a 3-of-12 rate on third-down attempts. I like UCF to come back strong here but I don’t quite think they’ll cover.