The Eastern Michigan Eagles and the UMass Minutemen meet Saturday in college football action from McGuirk Alumni Stadium. Here’s a UMass vs Eastern Michigan prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best UMass vs Eastern Michigan pick.
Eastern Michigan Eagles Betting Preview
The Eagles had some mixed results in 2023, a season that ended on a down note. Eastern Michigan ended up going 6-7 overall and 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference for a third-place finish in the West Division. The Eagles made it to the 68 Ventures Bowl, where they lost to South Alabama 59-10 in a blowout.
Chris Creighton will return to the sideline as EMU’s head coach this year. He’ll head a team that ranked sixth in the MAC by the coaches poll, which would likely be an improvement. The big issue that needs attention is the offense. Eastern Michigan ranked dead last in the conference last year with 264.1 yards per game.
UMass Minutemen Betting Preview
Over on the Minutemen’s side, they made it through last season at just 3-9 overall. That was last among the four independents behind Notre Dame, Army and UConn. The Minutemen did get a couple of late victories over Army and Merrimack in November but finished off with two more losses to Liberty and UConn in the final two games.
Heading into 2024, head coach Don Brown (eighth season) will get a new offensive coordinator in Shane Montgomery. UMass’ offense produced a reasonable 356.3 yards per game last season. That said, the Minutemen were gouged for 428.0 yards per game on the other side, leading to some big points totals for their opponents (37.8 PPG allowed).
Why the Massachusetts Minutemen will win
- Eastern Michigan has lost each of its last four road openers.
- The favorite has won 12 of Eastern Michigan’s last 13 games.
- Eastern Michigan has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against opponents from the FBS Independents.
- Eastern Michigan has lost the first half in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
Why the Eastern Michigan Eagles will win
- Massachusetts has lost each of its last eight games against opponents from the Mid-American Conference.
- Eastern Michigan has won seven of its last eight season openers.
- Massachusetts has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine games at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium.
- The underdog has covered the spread in eight of Massachusetts’ last nine games.
- Massachusetts has lost the first half in 28 of its last 33 games against non-conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Massachusetts’ last four August games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of Eastern Michigan’s last seven road openers have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Massachusetts ranked 19th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game last season (9.1).
- Massachusetts was one of only 22 FBS teams with a better road winning percentage (.333) than home winning percentage (.167) last season (min. 8 games).
- Eastern Michigan was one of only 22 FBS teams to lose 2+ games when leading after Q3 last season.
- Eastern Michigan ranked T35th among FBS teams for Q4 points allowed per game last season (5.3).
UMass vs Eastern Michigan Prediction
I’ll probably just stick with UMass. Also probably not touching this one. This will be the Minutemen’s last season as an independent. They’re set to go back to the MAC next year, so any sort of step forward in 2024 will be seen as positive momentum. On paper, the offense looks pretty good once again. Anthony Simpson is back following his 57 catches last year which led the team. Frank Ladson and Dominick Mazotti should serve as capable targets as well.
On defense is where UMass really needs to make some strides, and there are a few new pieces that could help immensely. OLB Gerrell Johnson will be a leader on that side of the ball, and his unit should see some improvements if they can get the pass rush moving.