In this article we will formulate a Vanderbilt vs LSU prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 18th at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 8 matchup.
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview
The Vanderbilt Commodores are 5-1 (1-1) this year after they lost to Alabama by a score of 30-14 in their last game. Vanderbilt was tied at 14 at the half, but they were shutout 16-0 in the second half for the loss. The Commodores were out gained by a total of 486-333, went 5-11 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Diego Pavia went 21-35 for 198 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Sedrick Alexander rushed for 76 yards and one score on four carries. Junior Sherrill led the receivers with six receptions for 49 yards in the loss. The Vandy defense recorded four sacks and six tackles for loss in the game.
Vanderbilt didn’t have a loss prior to that Alabama game, but they do have wins against Utah State, Georgia State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Charleston Southern. The Commodores have won five of their first six games and they are currently tied for seventh in the SEC standings. Vanderbilt has scored 43.2 points per game with 258.8 passing yards and 208.7 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 19.3 points against per game this season. Diego Pavia has thrown for 1,409 yards, 14 touchdowns, and four interceptions, while also leading the ground game with 352 yards and two scores on 60 carries this year.
LSU Tigers Betting Preview
The LSU Tigers are 5-1 (2-1) this season after they defeated South Carolina by a score of 20-10 last week. LSU led 10-7 at halftime, but they were tied at 10 in the third quarter, before scoring the last 10 points for the victory. The Tigers out gained South Carolina by a total of 420-317, went 4-11 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 3-2 in the game. Garrett Nussmeier went 20-33 for 254 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Caden Durham rushed 15 times for 70 yards. Trey’Dez Green led the receivers with eight catches for 119 yards and one score in the win. The LSU defense recorded five sacks and six tackles for loss in the game.
LSU also has wins against SELA, Florida, Louisiana Tech, and Clemson, while losing to Ole Miss two games ago. The Tigers have split their last two games and they are currently tied for fifth in the SEC standings. LSU has scored 26.2 points per game with 258.5 passing yards and 115.0 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 11.8 points against per game this season. Garrett Nussmeier has thrown for 1,413 yards, nine touchdowns, and five interceptions, while Aaron Anderson has 23 receptions for 305 yards this season.
Why the Vanderbilt Commodores will win
- Vanderbilt has won each of its last nine games as a home favorite.
- LSU has lost four of its last five October road games against AP-ranked teams.
- LSU has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven October road games against AP-ranked teams.
- The favorite has covered the spread in four of Vanderbilt’s last five games at FirstBank Stadium.
Why the LSU Tigers will win
- Vanderbilt has lost 32 of its last 34 games against top-15 AP-ranked teams.
- LSU has won eight of its last nine games.
- LSU has covered the spread in eight of its last nine games in October.
- Vanderbilt has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five October games as a favorite.
- Vanderbilt has lost the first half in eight of its last nine home games against conference opponents.
- LSU has won the first quarter in three of its last four road games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Six of LSU’s last seven games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of Vanderbilt’s last 12 games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Vanderbilt ranks 2nd among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (57.9).
- Vanderbilt ranks T6th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+7.7).
- LSU has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 10+ points of any FBS team this season (4).
- LSU ranks T3rd among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (83.3).
Vanderbilt vs LSU Prediction
Both of these teams come into this matchup with 5-1 records overall, so this is a huge game for each side. Vanderbilt only managed 14 points against Alabama in their last game, but they are coming off of a bye week and have scored at least 31 in four of their last five. LSU is ranked #10 in the country, but their offense has not looked good for the majority of the season. The Tigers should find success against a leaky Vanderbilt defense, but I don’t trust them to stop Pavia and the Commodores offense. Take the over here.
David Racey is 70-48 (59%) in College Football this season and is one of the top College Football Handicappers on the site. Click here for his premium plays for the week!