Virginia vs Duke Prediction Football Picks 11-18-23

Virginia vs Duke Prediction Football Picks 11-18-23 player photo
Credit: USA Today Sports

The Duke Blue Devils and the Virginia Cavaliers meet in college football action from Scott Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

Duke Falls To UNC

The Duke Blue Devils will be looking to rebound from a 47-45 double OT loss to North Carolina to fall to 6-4 on the year. Riley Leonard has thrown for 1,102 yards, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 57.6% passing while also rushing for 352 yards and 4 touchdowns while Grayson Loftis has thrown for 305 yards, 4 touchdowns and an INT on 50% passing. Jordan Waters leads Duke in rushing with 677 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns while Jaquez Moore has 491 rushing yards and 4 TDs. Jordan Moore has a team-high 42 receptions for 571 yards and 7 touchdowns while Jalon Calhoun has 519 receiving yards and 2 TDs as well. Two more Blue Devils have 100+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Tre Freeman has a team-high 85 total tackles while Aeneas Peebles has a team-high 3 sacks.

Duke Blue Devils Team Facts

  • Duke has won each of its last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Duke has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight November games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Duke has lost the first half in five of its last six games against conference opponents at Scott Stadium.
  • Each of Duke's last six road games in November have gone OVER the total points line.

Virginia Drops 3rd Straight

The Virginia Cavaliers come into this one losers of three in a row after a 31-24 loss to Louisville last time out to drop to 2-8 on the year. Anthony Colandrea has thrown for 1,437 yards, 8 touchdowns and 8 interceptions on 61.2% passing while Kobe Pace has 314 rushing yards and Mike Hollins has 226 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns. Malik Washington has a team-high 88 receptions for 1,199 yards and 7 touchdowns while Malachi Fields has 48 receptions for 648 yards and 2 touchdowns. On defense, Jonas Sanker has a team-high 90 total tackles while Kam Butler has 3.5 sacks as well this season.

Virginia Cavaliers Team Facts

  • Virginia has lost each of its last seven games in November.
  • Virginia has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games against Duke.
  • Virginia has won the first quarter in four of its last five games against conference opponents.
  • Virginia has lost the first half in five of its last six home games against conference opponents.
  • Five of Virginia's last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Virginia has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 10 points or less of any FBS team this season (3).
  • Virginia has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of five points or less of any FBS team this season (2).
  • Duke rank 23rd among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (18.8).

Chris’ Pick

I’m backing Virginia here. The Cavaliers have shown a ton of fight despite being dropped from bowl eligibility, and while Duke showed up last week, I think that can be chalked up to a rivalry game against UNC when you can normally throw records and form out the window as teams just want to beat their rival. Never thought I’d say it about a 2-8 team, but I like what I’ve seen from Virginia and I think they have a shot here. Give me Virginia.

 

Chris Ruffolo's Free Pick:Virginia +3.5