Week 1: Arkansas vs Cincinnati 9/3/22 College Football Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Arkansas Razorbacks and Cincinnati Bearcats meet Saturday in week 1 college football action from Razorback Stadium.

The Cincinnati Bearcats will try to maintain the success from the best year in program history, finishing the year at 13-1 overall and 8-0 in AAC conference play. The Bearcats took down Houston in the AAC title game and got the benefit of the doubt from the playoff committee, edging themselves into the college football playoff. The Bearcats dropped their semifinal in the Cotton Bowl to Alabama however, by a final score of 27-6. The big guns from the offense for last year’s squad are gone, but there are pieces to fill in. Evan Prater is prepared to take over from Desmond Ridder, but Ben Bryant is expected to be in the mix in his second go-round with Cincinnati after transferring to Eastern Michigan for a time. Ryan Montgomery and LSU transfer Corey Kiner will likely share snaps in the backfield, and most of Cincinnati’s receivers are back as well. On defense, that’s where things start to hurt as there’s a lot of rebuilding going on for the Bearcats. The linebackers lose some of their top strings, but Deshawn Pace is returning while Jowon Briggs transfers in from Virginia to help Malik Vann up front. The secondary took the biggest hit, but Arquon Bush is back at corner after a season where he recorded 3 INTs while Ja’von Hicks returns at safety as well.

The Arkansas Razorbacks will try to build on their solid 2021 campaign which saw the Hogs finish at 9-4 overall, including a 4-4 mark in SEC conference play. The Razorbacks played well enough to earn their spot in the Outback Bowl which resulted in a 24-10 win over Penn State. KJ Jefferson returns to gain more experience and thrive in Kendal Briles’ system in Fayettevills, completing 67% of his passes for 2,676 yards, 21 TDs and just 4 interceptions while also rushing for 664 yards and 4 scores on the ground. The Hogs have Raheim Jefferson in to help Arkansas and Jefferson in the backfield, and Jadon Haselwood comes in from Oklahoma to aid in the transition after Arkansas lost Treylon Burks to the NFL. On defense, Zack Williams returns after putting up 3.5 sacks last season while Bumper Pool also returns as one of the top linebackers in the SEC. Drew Sanders also transfers in from rival Alabama to give the Hogs some depth at that level but the biggest boost comes in the secondary. Jalen Catalon is back in the fold after an injury derailed his 2021 season, but the Razorbacks did well to hit the transfer portal hard and bring in guys like Latavious Brint from Georgia and Dwight McGlothern from LSU to fill the safety spots.

Cincinnati is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games while the under is 5-1 in their last 6 games on turf. Arkansas is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games while the under is 9-4 in their last 13 games in September.

I get the case to be made for the Bearcats and the points after such a strong showing in 2021. However, this is a tough spot in a season-opening game with some turnover from some pieces like Desmond Ridder who were integral to Cincinnati’s playoff run last season. The razorbacks are solid and while they lost some pieces as well, they have strong QB play from KJ Jefferson and I think this is a spot where Arkansas makes a statement against Cicninnati to start the year. Give me the Razorbacks and lay the touchdown.