Its the final weekend of the fantasy football draft season, and fantasy owners all over the world are doing some last minute cramming to gain a draft day edge. The key to a good draft is picking players with the best value, and one way to determine who has the best value is to remove players from draft boards that are overvalued. The following players are being picked too early on draft day.
Doug Martin – Martin is a strong player and he will get lots of touches over the course of the 2013 season. Martin finished as a top 5 scoring RB in fantasy during his rookie season, and it’s this top 5 finish that is causing him to be drafted with one of the first 5 picks on draft day. Fantasy owners need to take a closer look at Martin’s point totals from last year before they pick him so early on draft day. Martin had two huge games during his rookie season where he total over 200 yards in both these games. If you take these two games as outliers, than Matin would have finished the season as top 10 back, but not a top 5 back. Martin is worth a top 10 pick, but he is being overvalued as a top 5 pick. Martin is a key component of Tampa Bay’s offense, but he is not the centerpiece. Players such as Charles, Spiller, McCoy, and Richardson are the heart and soul of their teams’ offenses, and therefore, each of the these players present better 1st round value.
Brandon Marshall – Marshall was a fantasy football powerhouse in 2012, and based on Marshall’s average draft position, fantasy owners are expecting a repeat of his 2012 statline. The truth that most fantasy owners are afraid to face is that Marshall will not duplicate his numbers from last year. Marshall is a physical beast and he won’t be a bust, but Marshall will not end the 2013 season as a top 5 WR. The Bears know that they have to spread the ball around in order to have playoff success in the NFL. Marshall stated that he does not expect to catch 118 balls this year during preseason interviews, and Jay Cutler has also stated they need to spread the ball around and get Forte more involved in the offense. There is also a slight concern about Marshall’s health after having hip surgery during the offeseasn. Players such as Green, Bryant, and Thomas should be drafted before Marshall.
Steven Ridley – Ridley was a tremendous value pick in 2012, but he is an overvalued player in 2013. Ridley had a great early to midseason run in 2012, but he slowed down near the end of the season and into the playoffs. The patriots offense is also in a transition phase as they are trying to replace many weapons from the 2012 season. New England was very successful running the ball last year and since they lost so many players from their receiving corp, opposing defenses will zero in on the Patriots’ ground attack in 2013. The Patriots backfield has also gotten a little crowded will the addition of Blount and they seem to want to get Bolden some touches as well. Since the Patriots’ backfield has more competition for carries and opposing defenses will be concentrating on stopping the Patriot’s ground attack, players like Forte, Jackson, CJ, and Bush present better value than Ridley.
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Darren McFadden – The only team that has looked worse than the Jets during the 2013 preseason is the Raiders. The Raiders have looked very poor on both sides of the ball, and this does not bode well for their running game. McFadden may be the best show in town, but he has not shown the ability to carry a poor offense. There are lots of other running backs that are on much better teams that are being drafted after McFadden in most leagues. Players such as Lacy, Murray, Sproles, and Bradshaw present much better value than McFadden.