Fantasy Baseball Draft 2014: Top 10 Overvalued Players
Jason's Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Top 10 Overvalued Players
February 18, 2014
Top Ten Overvalued Players
1. Carlos Gomez - Gomez is coming into the 2014 fantasy season as the prototypical career year fantasy bust candidate. The rule is that you never draft someone based on a career year, and thanks to his breakout 2013 season, Gomez is being ranked as a top 10 outfielder. Gomez is only 28 years old, and he could duplicate his numbers from last season since he is in the prime of his career. But it is an awful big gamble to a take a career .255 hitter with a career .709 OPS in the 3rd or 4th round.
2. Anibal Sanchez - Sanchez is another player whose fantasy stock shot up because of a career year in 2013, and that is why fantasy owners should be very wary of drafting Sanchez like a top 20 or even top 15 fantasy pitcher. Last season Sanchez produced the best ERA of his career, 2.57, which was a full run below his career ERA of 3.55. Last season was also only the second time that Sanchez has struck out over 200 batters in a season, and only the third time in his career he posted double digit wins. Sanchez will be 30 years old when the season starts, and while that does not mean that he will regress in 2014, it is hard to see him getting better or even repeating his career year numbers.
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
3. Starling Marte - Marte popped onto the fantasy radar last year, but his season was a bit more rocky than fantasy owners seem to realize. Marte was a very inconsistent hitter as his batting average waivered dramatically from month to month. While he should become more consistent with more experience, it is puzzling how many fantasy deemed him a better fantasy outfielder than players like Jason Heyward, Jayson Werth, Matt Holliday, or Will Myers who all have lower average draft positions than Marte. Marte is looking like he will be a solid baseball player, but entering the 2014 season, he is being drafted ahead of players with much more upside.
4. David Wright - Wright has been one of the best hitters in baseball for many years now, but his production has started to take a dip over the past few seasons. Injury has been the main reasons for the drop in Wright's numbers, and that is not a fact that fantasy owners should ignore. Wright is considered by the majority of the fantasy baseball world to be a top 20 fantasy hitter, but he has not performed on that level for 2 of the last 3 years. If Wright stays healthy he will be a valuable fantasy asset, but his recent injury riddled seasons suggest he is too big a gamble for a 2nd round pick.
5. Paul Goldschmidt - There is no doubt that Goldschmidt has earned the right to be discussed as a first round fantasy draft pick in 2014, but it seems to be a stretch to consider him as the 3rd best player in baseball. Goldschmidt is young and he could very well build on his excellent season from last year, but given the fact that some regression is almost assured, the 3rd overall pick is a bit too high for a player with such a short history.
6. Yasiel Piug - Piug is another young star who set the fantasy world on fire last year, and now he is considered to be a top 10 fantasy outfielder for the 2014 season. Piug could very well live up to the hype, but he could also get distracted and fall off a cliff. Piug has shown he still needs time to mature as a player, and that is why fantasy owners should be a little cautious with the idea of taking Puig in the 2nd or 3rd round. Starlin Castro is an example of a young athlete that needed time to mature and Puig could follow the same path that Castro went down last season. Investing such a high draft pick in a player who excelled for half a season as a rookie is a big gamble, and fantasy owners should weigh the risk of such a gamble before snatching Piug in fantasy drafts this season.
7. Jason Kipnis - Kipnis finally had the breakout season many fantasy owners were hoping for last year, and now many fantasy owners are considering him the second best 2nd basemen in fantasy. Kipnis faded as the season progressed last year, and that could simply be due to the fact he is still a young player learning how to endure a long 162 game season. However, it seems like a big jump to draft Kipnis, a player who has yet to play strong throughout a whole season, over a perennial all-star like Dustin Pedroia.
8. Ryan Braun - Many fantasy owners are excited about the fact they can get Ryan Braun in the 2nd round of drafts this season, and he could very well live up to that high of a draft pick. However, fantasy owners need to be a little cautious when deciding to draft Braun as there are many question marks that still surround him. He will be motivated, but does that mean he will be pressing instead of being patient? It is hard to pass on Braun, especially if he is still on the board in the middle of the 2nd round, but fantasy owners should consider all their options before selecting Braun with a first or second round pick.
9. Robinson Cano - Cano is a player whose value has dropped this offseason because he has moved to a bigger ballpark and now hits for a team with a suspect lineup. The Mariners have still not found any real protection for Cano in their lineup, and that could lead to a drop in Cano's run production this season. Cano is still one of the best hitters in baseball, but his new situation in Seattle will impact his fantasy value in a negative way, and fantasy owners should adjust their expectations of Cano accordingly.
10. Craig Kimbrel - Kimbrel is only on this list because of the position he plays. There is no doubt that Kimbrel should be the first closer off the board on draft day. The only debate is when the first closer should come off the board. As the fantasy consensus seems to be that Kimbrel is worth a 4th round draft pick, that seems to be a bit high for a closer when there are so many other players who carry a bigger fantasy impact still on the board at that time.
For Fantasy Baseball Updates and Insights follow Jason on Twitter @TheSuperCommish