Fantasy Baseball Draft 2014: Top 10 Draft Busts
Taking a Look at the Top 10 Overvalued Players in the 2014 Draft
March 13, 2014
We’ve been breaking down the 2014 fantasy baseball draft over the past month or so, and in this edition it’s time we went in a different direction. There are a handful of players out there who are consistently ranked a bit higher than they should be, and you should exercise some caution if you come across them while on the clock. Here’s a look at our top 10 draft busts who won’t necessarily deliver the numbers to match their high draft stock.
1. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oakland Athletics: Donaldson and his owners enjoyed a pleasantly surprising fantasy campaign last season. He posted 24 homers, a .301 average and 93 RBI, but don’t expect a repeat. That’s his ceiling, and we should see him hit around 20 dingers with a .280 or so average. Adjust accordingly.
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2. Josh Hamilton, OF, Los Angeles Angels: Always a hot topic of discussion in the days leading up to draft season, Hamilton’s name is on the lips of a lot of wary fantasy owners again this season. He’s coming off a “blah” 2013 and is already fighting off an injury (calf) this spring. Don’t expect that average to creep up much past .250.
3. Chris Davis, 1B, Baltimore Orioles: If you saw Davis’ scorching-hot 2013 coming, then congratulations, you’re a wizard. The 53 homers and 138 RBI won many a fantasy championship, and his price tag will skyrocket accordingly. Don’t overpay for last year’s numbers, as Davis likely won’t reach them again.
4. Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners: Cano and his bloated new deal are expected to be the saviors in Seattle this season, but that’s a lot of expectation to put on one guy. You’ll see guys going nutty to draft him, as he’s far and away the best option at 2B. Exercise caution here and don’t mortgage your future to pay for him now. You can get a lower-end option at 2B to help fill in the gaps at a much more reasonable price.
5. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: Kemp is a frequent topic of discussion around here, and we have a feeling that this year will be no different. You’re taking an enormous risk drafting him, given his injury history and tepid production over the past couple of seasons. Better to go with a safer prospect in his draft position than to risk another lost campaign.
6. Prince Fielder, 1B, Texas Rangers: If you’re expecting Fielder to return to form in Texas, you probably won’t get your wish. Don’t get us wrong; He’ll have a nice year, it’s just that you’ve probably seen the last of his 30-plus homers seasons. Fielder will still reach 100 RBI or so, however, so if you can get him at a reasonable cost, go right ahead.
7. Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Bautista is coming into the season healthy, and that’s definitely a plus here. That said, a lot of owners are expecting a resurgence in numbers that he may not be able to reach. Reasonable expectations (if healthy) should be around 27 homers, 80 RBI and a .260 average.
8. B.J. Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves: Upton is coming off a downright miserable year (nine homers, a .184 average and 26 RBI). There’s really no place to go but up from here, but don’t expect a night-and-day difference in numbers. Upton’s BA will be awful (.210 or so) and he’ll drag down your team. The handful of runs and swipes aren’t worth it.
9. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: Braun has a lot to prove with fans and fantasy owners alike this season, so he’ll carry some risk any way you look at it. If you’re an optimist, he’ll go among the top 20 or so players at your draft. Otherwise, you should probably steer clear all together.
10. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: One of the major gripes about Votto is that he’s not aggressive enough at the plate. Don’t expect him to be changing anything up, though, as he tries to duplicate a solid campaign in 2013. You’ll see owners falling all over themselves to draft him, but don’t get caught up in it. There are other cheaper options at 1B this spring that can get you near-similar stats.
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