Fantasy Baseball Draft 2015: Top 10 Draft Busts
Taking a Look at the Top 10 Busts in the 2015 Fantasy Draft
March 20, 2015
Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve examined the 2015 fantasy baseball draft from just about every angle. Today it’s time to start getting to some of the negatives out there, and by that we mean checking out the dreaded draft busts. There’s really no way to predict which players will dive-bomb in the statistical categories, but we can at least examine who will be the most likely to do it. Here’s a closer look.
1. Yan Gomes, C, Cleveland Indians: Gomes is going as a potential high-stock draft pick among catchers this season, thanks to a solid 2014 campaign. Some people are calling for a major regression this year, though, as he had a high line-drive rate and probably won’t equal the 21 homers he hit last summer.
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2. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels: Pujols is another popular pick for a fall in 2015. He’ll sneak his way into the top 10 among first basemen on name recognition alone, but probably won’t come anywhere near the high-20s in home runs again. If you draft him, prepare for a drop in power.
3. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs: Like many fantasy owners, we’ve been burned on Castro before and have some trouble trusting him. He’s coming off something of a resurgence last year, but considering 2013’s ugly numbers that’s not saying much. The ceiling is great here, but he’s not worth a high pick among middle infielders.
4. Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees: Gardner found quite a bit of power from out of nowhere last season, clubbing 17 homers--more than doubling his output from any other year. Unless you can get him as a bench outfielder, there’s no reason to reach and put him in as a starter expecting a repeat of those 2014 numbers.
5. Doug Fister, SP, Washington Nationals: Those who look closely into Fister’s 2014 stats will see his 84 percent strand rate, which is nothing short of stellar. Barring a very unlikely repeat of that, there’s no reason to get crazy on a guy who probably won’t win more than 12 or 13 games this summer. His ERA will take a hit as well; expect it closer to 3.00.
6. Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals: Let’s stick with pitchers for a moment and check out Wainwright, who has a lot of people questioning his value after a second-half downtrend last year. Unless his elbow problems are behind him (which is a risk any way you look at it), don’t be surprised to see his struggles continue as the 2015 season gets going.
7. George Springer, OF, Houston Astros: We were all aboard the Springer bandwagon last season, and admittedly the guy has tons of potential. Beware of overvaluing him, however, and letting the hype go to your head on draft day. Springer needs to cut down on the strikeouts and show he can steal bases consistently in the majors before we anoint him the Next Big Thing in fantasy.
8. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds: Hamilton is good for one thing and one thing only: steals. Unless you’ve got everything covered by the other outfielders in your lineup--power, BA, etc.--you can’t really count on him for anything other than swipes. Keep that in mind on draft day.
10. Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals: After coming into 2014 atop the hype train for fantasy backstops, Molina turned in a “meh” year statistically. We think he’s more likely to have another one of those years than he is to turn back the clock at the advanced age of 32. Another guy to not get crazy on when you’re fishing for catchers.
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