Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice – 4/30
HIgh Cost & Value Picks for all your MLB Daily Fantasy Leagues
April 30th, 2015
Daily Fantasy Baseball – High Cost / Value Picks – 4/30/15
Please remember to check the line-ups prior to the game and the weather reports to ensure you have a full roster of active players.
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- High Cost – Chris Sale – Chicago White Sox
Chris Sale is going to be my “high cost” pitcher on Thursday as he has a favorable matchup against the Minnesota Twins. Sale has been good in his three starts so far this season going 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Sale was only able to record two K’s in his last outing against the Royals, but as the Royals strike out the least in all of MLB, this low strikeout total wasn’t shocking for Sale. In 2014, Sale posted a 2-0 recorded with a 2.95 ERA while striking out 27 in 21.1 IP against Minnesota and I expect the tall lefty to have a strong performance against a Twins team that ranks near the bottom of both runs scored and batting average in 2015.
- Value Pick – Shelby Miller – Atlanta Braves
Shelby Miller won’t be the cheapest pitcher to select on Thursday, but with the limited games I think he provides the best value for buck. Miller has gotten off to a great start as he is currently 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Miller has gone at least 5 innings in every start in 2015, has yet to give up more than 2 ER in any outing, and has 14 strikeouts over 22.0 IP. Washington is ranked 4th in MLB for total strikeouts with 177 through Tuesday and is hitting just .224 as a team (ranked 25th). I think Miller can at least go 6.0 IP in this one with getting 5-8 strikeouts and the win.
- High Cost – Steven Vogt – Oakland Athletics
Steven Vogt has gotten off to an incredible 2015 for the Athletics as the career .267 batter is currently hitting .355 on the season with four homeruns and 14 RBI’s. Vogt has only gone hitless in three games this season and has been hitting .368 over the past week. Vogt has a .300 (3-10) average against the Angels Garrett Richards and is hitting .377 with all of his homeruns against right-handed pitching in 2015.
- Value Pick – A.J. Pierzynski – Atlanta Braves (Carlos Ruiz if Pierzynski doesn’t start)
A.J. Pierzynski was brought in to be the backup for the Braves this season, but with the way he has been swinging the bat, he has forced the Braves to start playing him regularly. Pierzynski is hitting an outstanding .439 (18-41) on the season with three homeruns and 12 RBI’s. Pierzynski was a perfect 4 for 4 on Tuesday night against the Nationals with 4 RBI’s. The Reds are starting a lefty in this contest so there is a good chance that Christian Bethancourt will get the start, but if Pierzynski gets the start, I will hope that his unexplainable hot bat continues. If Pierzynski doesn’t get the start, I would probably take a look at the Phillies Carlos Ruiz as he is hitting .316 over the past week and will be facing a lefty in the Cardinal’s Tim Cooney who will be making his MLB debut.
- High Cost – Jose Abreu – Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu has absolutely been crushing the ball as of late as he has hit .450 over the past week with two doubles, two homeruns, and seven RBI’s. Abreu is hitting .313 on the season with five homeruns and will be facing Minnesota’s Trevor May in which he has posted a career .500 (3 for 6) average with an RBI. Abreu has been great against right-handed pitching so far in 2015 as he is hitting .347 with four homeruns and 13 RBI’s.
- Value Pick – Eric Hosmer – Kansas City Royals
I’m sticking with Eric Hosmer for the second straight day as my value pick at first base for many of the reasons I took for Wednesday. Prior to his game on Wednesday, Hosmer is hitting .320 over the past week and .405 against right-handed pitching on the season. Hosmer will be facing the Tiger’s Alfredo Simon on Thursday, and although Simon is having a good start to his 2015 campaign, Hosmer has posted a career .500 (2 for 4) average with two homeruns and an RBI against the righty.
- High Cost – Robinson Cano – Seattle Mariners
Robinson Cano is currently going through a bit of mini-slump as he is 0 for his last 12 and is hitting just .174 over the past week. Cano is hitting just .259 with a home run in 2015, but I can’t see the career .309 hitter struggling for too much longer. Cano has a favorable matchup against the Astro’s Scott Feldman on Wednesday in which Cano has a lifetime .316 average with a double and two RBI’s. Cano is hitting .309 off right-handed pitching in 2015 and as they are playing in Houston, I think he can certainly break his slump by hitting a home run in this one.
- Value Pick – Brandon Phillips – Cincinnati Reds
The longtime veteran Brandon Phillips is my “value pick” on Thursday as he has had some decent success off the Braves Shelby Miller. Phillips used to see a bit of Miller when he was with the Cardinals and has posted a career .353 average with a double and homerun. As of Wednesday, Phillips has recorded a base hit in each of his last three games, which included a homerun against the Brewers on Tuesday.
- High Cost – Ian Desmond – Washington Nationals
Ian Desmond has disappointed many fantasy owners so far in 2015 as he is currently hitting just .238 with a homerun and 5 RBI’s. There isn’t a lot of “high cost” picks at SS on Thursday, but I’m going with Desmond as he has posted a career .333 (2 for 6) average with a homerun and three RBI’s against the Mets Jason DeGrom. Desmond is hitting better against right-handed pitching this season posting a .271 average and as DeGrom can give up the long-ball (3 HR’s allowed in his recent start against the Yankees), I’ll hope that Desmond can connect on one this Thursday.
- Value Pick – Andrelton Simmons – Atlanta Braves
Andrelton Simmons is hitting a sub-par .273 so far in 2015 and although he is only hitting .276 in the past week he has hit a homerun and driven in 6 RBI’s in that span. Simmons has fared well against Cincinnati’s Mike Leake (0-1, 3.90 ERA) having posted a career .500 (5-10) average with a double. Simmons is hitting .364 off left-handed pitchers in 2015 and as the current Braves roster has had some success off Leake, I hoping that Simmons will have a chance to add to this RBI totals in this one.
- High Cost – Matt Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals
I’ve gone with Matt Carpenter a lot of this past week as my “high cost” pick and until starts to slow down a bit, he probably with be a fixture on as my “high cost” pick as the guy just seems to get at least two hits every night. As I mentioned yesterday, going into his Wednesday night matchup Carpenter has had 12 multi-hit games in his last 15 contests and he has posted a career .500 average against the Phillies David Buchanan along with hitting .368 against righties, Carpenter is worth the money again on Thursday.
- Value Pick – Danny Valencia – Toronto Blue Jays
I’m going to go with Danny Valencia this Thursday in hopes that he gets a start between his recent success at the plate and good history against the Indians T.J. House. Valencia, who is generally the utility man for the Blue Jays, Is hitting .455 (10-22) on the season which includes a .333 average over the past week. Valencia has is 2 for 3 lifetime against T.J. House including a homerun and RBI. You’ll have to make sure that he is in the lineup on Thursday, but if he is and you want a non-expensive option at third, Valencia is a good choice.
- High Cost – Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels
Mike Trout is hitting .300 with 4 homeruns and 11 RBI’s in 2015 and although he is hitting just .158 over the past week, he is going to be one of my “high cost” outfielders this Thursday. Trout will be up against Jesse Chavez of the Oakland Athletics on Thursday and has posted a career .308 average and a .846 slugging % as he has two homeruns and 5 RBI’s off the righty. Trout has actually been better against right-handed pitchers so far in 2015 as he has posted a .327 average against righties.
- High Cost – J.D. Martinez – Detroit Tigers
J.D. Martinez is hitting .277 on the season but has collected 5 homeruns and 14 RBI’s on the season and is always a threat to hit one over the fences as he has great power. Martinez will be squaring off against the Royals Danny Duffy and although he is on 1 for 6 against Duffy, the one hit was a homerun. Martinez is hitting .300 away from Comerica Park and hit an incredible .516 (16-31) at Kauffman Stadium in 2014 with a homerun and 7 RBI’s.
- Value Pick – Kelly Johnson – Atlanta Braves
Kelly Johnston is only hitting .268 on the season, but has been seeing the ball well lately as he is hitting .368 with a homerun and 7 RBI’s over the past week. Johnston is showing some decent value on Thursday as he has a career .385 average off Cincinnati’s Mark Leake with a homerun and 2 RBI’s. Johnston has been swinging the bat at Turner Field in 2015 as he currently has a .350 average with two homeruns and 6 RBI’s at his home park.
- Value Pick – Adam Eaton – Chicago White Sox
Adam Eaton is hitting just .200 on the season as of Wednesday however, seems to be heating up as he is hitting .304 over the past week and has had 3 multi-hit games over his last 5 contests. Eaton has a .333 (2 for 6) average against Minnesota’s Trevor May and if he can get on base, is always a threat to steal. Eaton hit .316 against Minnesota in 2014 which included a .302 average at Turner Field.