Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice – 5/13
High Cost & Value Picks for all your MLB Daily Fantasy Leagues
May 13th, 2015
Daily Fantasy Baseball – High Cost / Value Picks – 5/13/15
Please remember to check the line-ups prior to the game and the weather reports to ensure you have a full roster of active players.
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- High Cost – Sonny Gray – Oakland Athletics
I’m picking Sonny Gray as the best “high cost” pitcher on Wednesday as outside of a below average start in Kansas City earlier in the year, Gray has been absolutely lights out. In 2015, Gray has posted a 4-0 record with a 1.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while striking out 44 batters in 49.0 IP. Gray looked great in his last start against Seattle going 6.0 IP giving up just a run while striking out 9 Mariners. Gray picked up a no decision against the Red Sox in 2014, however he his holding the current red sox roster to a .125 average and has a solid 8.1 K/9 ratio so far in 2015. The Red Sox generally struggle in Oakland and as Boston ranks 25th in MLB in batting average, Gray a good option to spend some money on this afternoon.
- Value Pick – Jimmy Nelson – Milwaukee Brewers
Jimmy Nelson has posted a 4.00 ERA so for in 2015, however the young righty from the Brewers has a good 1.08 WHIP and certainly has the arsenal to pile up some strikeouts. In his previous outing, Nelson gave up 4 runs (3 homeruns) however, was able to go 7 innings and pile up 11 K’s in the loss. Nelson has been much better at Miller Park this season as he has posted a 2.05 ERA in 3 starts and has an impressive 8.8 K/9 so far in 2015. The White Sox have done a decent job in 2015 limiting their strikeouts, but as Mike Fiers was able to rack up 7 K’s last night, I think Nelson could certainly do at least the same. As Nelson has the potential to go 7 innings while striking out 5-10 batters he certainly has value for his price tag on Wednesday.
- High Cost – Victor Martinez – Detroit Tigers
Victor Martinez has had an awful beginning to his 2015 season as the veteran slugger is hitting just .235 with a homerun and 15 RBI’s on the season. The good news is that the career .305 hitting finally seems to be finding his swing a bit as he is hitting .348 with 2 doubles, a homerun, and 6 RBI’s over the past week. Martinez has a good matchup on Wednesday as he squares off against Ricky Nolasco of the Minnesota Twins in which he has posted a career .625 (5-8) average with a 3 BB’s, a double, and RBI. Martinez has struggled from the left side of the plate this year hitting just .158, however over the past three seasons Martinez’s average against right-handed pitchers has been .319 and in that same time period, he has hit .327 with 6 homeruns and 23 RBI’s against the Twins.
- Value Pick – Jason Castro – Houston Astros
Jason Castro is probably never going to hit for a solid average, but does have good value at the Catchers position as usually you can get him for a very low price and he does have some decent power against right-handed pitching that he can get you a homerun. Castro is only hitting .224 so far on the young season, but does have 5 doubles and 3 homeruns on the season. Castro was able to go yard in last night’s game against the Giants and has collected a hit in 10 of his last 11 games. Castro will be facing off against Tim Hudson against the Giants who has given up 6 homeruns in his last 4 starts. Castro doesn’t have any experience against Hudson, but as he does better against right-handed pitching, is worth a look on Wednesday.
- High Cost – Freddie Freeman – Atlanta Braves
Although the Atlanta Braves are not expected to contend in 2015 and basically are in rebuilding mode, they certainly won’t have to worry about 1st base for many years as they have one of the best young 1st baseman in Freddie Freeman. Freeman is hitting .333 with 5 homeruns and 18 RBI’s on the season and has hit .478 (11-23) with 5 doubles and 4 RBI’s over the past week. Freeman will be facing Raisel Iglesias of the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday in which he has never faced, however, Freeman is hitting .330 and slugging .560 against right-handed pitching on the season. Iglesias was rated as the 58th best prospect going into the season, but so far in his few starts in Triple AAA (Louisville)/MLB he doesn’t seem to have figured it out as of yet and I’m hoping Freeman can take advantage of the rookie pitcher on Wednesday.
- Value Pick – Chris Davis – Baltimore Orioles
Chris Davis and many of the Baltimore Orioles disappointed me last night with their performance against Mark Buehrle of the Toronto Blue Jays, but I’m sticking with him as Davis and Baltimore are still at Camden Yards on Wednesday which has been the best hitters park so far in 2015 and he is facing a right-hander in which he has had great success off of. Davis is hitting just .243 on the season but does have 8 homeruns and 21 RBI’s on the season. Davis will be going against Aaron Sanchez of the Toronto Blue Jays in which he is a perfect 4 for 4 against with 2 BB’s, 2 homeruns, and 2 RBI’s. Davis is hitting .313 with 5 homeruns at Camden Yards on the season and has hit more homeruns off the Blue Jays (21 Homeruns) than any other team in MLB over the past three years.
- High Cost – Robinson Cano – Miami Marlins
I was thinking about going with Jimmy Paredes today, however, Cano has had too much success against Jamie Shields to ignore and as his price tag is pretty much identical to Paredes, I’m going to go with Cano on Wednesday. Cano has gotten off to a slow start in 2015 as the career .309 hitter is hitting just .271 with 1 homerun and 11 RBI’ however, he is picking it up as of late hitting .333 with 4 RBI’s over the past week. Cano has crushed Jamie Shields as in his career he has posted a .405 (34-84) average with 9 doubles, 2 triples, 4 homeruns, and 15 RBI’s. Cano has fared well this season against right handed pitching as he is hitting at a .309 mark and actually has hit really well at Safeco Field as he is hitting at a .339 mark at home in 2015.
- Value Pick – Aaron Hill - Arizona Diamondbacks
Aaron Hill is hitting .282 (slugging .449) with 3 homeruns and 11 RBI’s so far in 2015 but has been on a tear as of late as he has hit .500 (11-22) over the past week with 2 homeruns and 7 RBI’s. Hill does have a tough matchup against Gio Gonzalez of the Washington Nationals but he does have some experience against the left hander. Hill is only hitting .231 in his career against Gonzalez however, is hitting .304 against left-handed pitching so far in 2015. Hill hit a respectable .286 against the Nationals in 2014 and certainly has enough pop in his bat to collect some homeruns. Hill’s price is just low enough today that I think he is showing good value.
- High Cost – Marcus Semien – Oakland Athletics
Oakland as a team has really struggled so far in 2015, however, one of the few bright spots on their roster has been the emergence of Marcus Semien. Semien is hitting .307 on the season with 6 homeruns and 15 RBI’s and has been crushing the ball as of late as he has hit .444 with 3 homeruns (2 of them off Felix Hernandez) and 3 RBI’s over the past week. Semien will be going against the left-handed Wade Miley of the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday which he is a lifetime 1 for 3 against. Semien is hitting an impressive .391 on the season against left-handed pitching and as Miley has really struggled on the season, Semien is a good play on Wednesday.
- Value Pick – Johnny Peralta – St. Louis Cardinals
At first glance, Peralta wasn’t probably going to be on my radar today knowing that he is up against the reigning AL CY Young award winner in Corey Kluber, but after looking at Peralta numbers, I do think he is showing decent value for his price tag today. Peralta is the only member of the Cardinals roster that has faced Kluber and he has fared well against him as he has posted a career .385 (5-13) average with two doubles against the right-hander. Peralta is having a solid season in 2015 hitting .296 with 4 homeruns and 16 RBI’s and has actually fared much better against right-handed pitching on the season as he is hitting .330 against righties. Peralta is also hitting .355 away from Busch Stadium on the season and with a price tag in the mid to high$2000 range, he has good value on Wednesday.
- High Cost – Kyle Seager – Seattle Mariners
Similar to Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager is another Mariner who is off to a slow start in 2015, but is worth a good look tonight as he has had great success against Jamie Shields of San Diego. Seager is hitting just .244 but does have 4 homeruns and 19 RBI’s on the season and hit a 3 run blast last night. In his career, Seager is 5-11 with 2 homeruns and 4 RBI’s off Jamie Shields and is hitting better at Safeco Field so far in 2015. Seager isn’t the highest costing 3b on the market tonight, but due to the fact that Jamie Shields has given up an incredible 7 homeruns in his last 11.1 IP, I’m hoping that Seager can put another one out of the ball park tonight.
- Value Pick – Mike Moustakas – Kansas City Royals
Mike Moustakas is a general fixture as my “value pick” at the hot corner as I’m still shocked that he has a price tag in the mid to high $2000 range which the success he has had in 2015. On the season, Moustakas is hitting .322 with 4 homeruns and 11 RBI’s and over his past three games he is hitting .400. Moustakas hasn’t faced Yovani Gallardo of the Texas Rangers in his career, however he is hitting .319 against right-handed pitching on the season. In 2014, Moustakas hit .368 against the Texas Rangers and he is currently hitting .414 away from home. Moustakas has a ton of power and for the cheap price, once again has great value on Wednesday.
- High Cost – Bryce Harper – Washington Nationals
Probably don’t even need much explanation on why Harper should be on your lineups if you can afford him, but I will anyways. Harper is hitting .308 with 12 homeruns and 31 RBI’s on the season and has been on absolute fire as of last as he has hit .565 with 7 homeruns and 16 RBI’s over the past week. Harper has never faced Jeremy Hellickson of the Arizona Diamondbacks but I like the match up as Hellickson has given up 3 homeruns in his last 10.0 IP and Harper is hitting .322 with 11 of his 12 homeruns off right-handed pitching. Harper has hit .321 in day games in 2015 and over the past three seasons has hit .325 against Arizona.
- High Cost – Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers
Just like the majority of the Milwaukee Brewers, Braun has gotten off to a slow start collecting hits in 2015 season as the career .305 hitter is hitting at just a .248 mark. The good news for fantasy owners is that Braun does have 6 homeruns and 18 RBI’s on the season and looks as if he is finding his swing as he has hit .348 (8-23) while scoring 10 runs over the past week. Braun will be facing the left-handed Jose Quintana on Wednesday and although he only has limited experience (1-3) against Quintana, Braun has hit .331 against lefties over the past three seasons. Milwaukee’s offensive is starting to click a bit and as they play in a good hitters park, I think Braun is good play today.
- Value Pick – Colby Rasmus – Houston Astros
Colby Rasmus is not having a great first season with the Houston Astros as he is hitting just .232, however Rasmus has shown some power down in Houston as he has hit 6 homeruns and collected 12 RBI’s. Rasmus has a good matchup against Tim Hudson of the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday as he has posted a career .429 (6-14) average with 2 homeruns and 4 RBI’s. Rasmus is hitting a bit better against right-handed pitching and has hit for power against righties as he has a .562 slugging % in 2015. Rasmus is a decent value as he does have the capability to put up a big game similar to what he did on May 2nd against Seattle (3-5, 3R, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI) and you can get him for a very low price.
- Value Pick – David Murphy – Cleveland Indians
The last time I went with David Murphy he was a late scratch from the line-up, however, I’m confident that he will get the start today as he has done well against John Lackey of the St. Louis Cardinals. Murphy has had an average season so far in 2015 as he is hitting at .279 mark with 3 homeruns and 6 RBI’s, however, Murphy has really picked it up over the past week as he is hitting .455 which included a 4-4 performance against Minnesota on Sunday. In his career against Lackey, Murphy has posted a .440 (11-25) average with 2 doubles and a triple. Murphy is hitting .283 with all three of his homeruns against right-handed pitching on the season and is also hitting a solid .296 at home. If you need to save some money at the OF position on Wednesday, take a look at Murphy.