Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice – 5/15
High Cost & Value Picks for all your MLB Daily Fantasy Leagues
May 15th, 2015
Daily Fantasy Baseball – High Cost / Value Picks – 5/15/15
Please remember to check the line-ups prior to the game and the weather reports to ensure you have a full roster of active players.
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- High Cost – Mason Bumgarner – San Francisco Giants
It took Mason Bumgarner a few outings to settle into the 2015 season, however, the left-hander is starting to show the form that won him the World Series MVP in 2014. On the season, Bumgarner has a 3-2 record with a 3.30 ERA and 1.10 WHIP while striking out 42 batters in 43.2 IP. Bumgarner has pitched well in three of his last 4 games and even in his worst game in which he gave up 3 runs over 5.0 IP, he was still able to pile up 10 K’s. Over the past three seasons, Bumgarner has a 2-1 record in three starts against the Reds while posting a 2.35 ERA. Bumgarner is holding the current Cincinnati line-up to a .238 average and has a 8.7 K/9 ratio. Outside of Kershaw, Bumgarner should be the most expensive pitcher on Friday, however, as the Reds aren’t the strongest hitting team, I think Bumgarner is worth the investment tonight.
- Value Pick – Jake Odorizzi – Tampa Bay Rays
I’m going with Jake Odorizzi as my value pick today as although Odorizzi still has a mid-high price tag, I think his value is great compared to some of the big-name starters that will cost you at least a third of your salary. Odorizzi is 3-2 on the season with an impressive 2.09 ERA and 0.91 WHIP and has compiled 39 strikeouts in 47.1 IP. Odorizzi has been impressive as of late as over his last two starts he has gone 13.2 IP while giving up just 2 runs and striking out 13 batters. Odorizzi has a 7.4 K/9 which is down a bit compared to his 9.3 K/9 in 2014, however has a good matchup against a Minnesota Twins team that ranks in the top 10 in MLB in strikeouts.
- High Cost – Buster Posey – San Francisco Giants
Buster Posey got off to a bit of slow start at the plate this season but as he has had a strong May (hitting .341), he comes into this game with a .289 average with 5 homeruns and 15 RBI’s. Posey has hit .368 (7-19) over the past week with 5 BB’s, a homerun and 4 RBI’s. The Giants have a good matchup against the Reds Jason Marquis who comes into this matchup with a 5.66 ERA and has given up 7 homeruns in his 6 starts in 2015. Posey has some experience against Marquis and although is average is low against the veteran right-hander, he has gone deep against Marquis in his career. In 2015 Posey is hitting .301 against righties and .298 on the road and as the Giants roster has hit .320 as a team against Marquis, I think the Giants and Posey could have a good day at the plate.
- Value Pick – Wilin Rosario – Colorado Rockies
Wilin Rosario has worked himself back up to the major leagues and although his defensive is questionable at any position he plays, we are only really concerns with what he does at the plate. Rosario has started the last few games as a DH and 1B and I believe that the powerful hitter will get another start tonight going against the left-handed Clayton Kershaw. On paper this looks like a real bad matchup but Kershaw has been very hittable in 2015 posting a 4.26 ERA and has allowed 5 homeruns in seven starts in 2015. Rosario has fared well against the NL MVP as in his career he has posted a .320 (8-25) average with a homerun and 5 RBI’s. Since being recalled by the Rockies, Rosario is hitting .313 and was 2-4 last night with a homerun and 2 RBI’s.
- High Cost – Adrian Gonzalez – Los Angeles Dodgers
Adrian Gonzalez has put together quite a 2015 campaign to date as the first baseman is currently hitting .367 with 9 homeruns and 32 RBI’s on the season. Gonzalez will be squaring off against Eddie Butler of the Colorado Rockies in which he has a lifetime .300 average with a homerun and 2 RBI’s. Gonzalez is hitting .363 and slugging .706 against right-handed pitching in 2015 and is hitting an incredible .395 at Dodger Stadium on the season. Gonzalez has been dominant against the Rockies on the season as he has hit .435 and driven in 12 RBI’s against Colorado on the season.
- Value Pick – Adam Lind – Milwaukee Brewers
I’m surprised that Adam Lind’s price tag is still floating around the $3000 area as Lind has been solid in 2015 as he has hit .298 with 6 homeruns and 18 RBI’s. Lind has really been the only consistent threat that the Brewers offensive has had this season and has a good match up against Bartolo Colon of the New York Mets as he has posted a career .313 average with a homerun. Colon has pitched very well for the Mets this season, however, even when pitching well as he depends heavily on the location of his high 80’s fastball, he can be prone to giving up HR’s if the control isn’t there. Lind is hitting .315 with all 6 of his homeruns against right-handed pitching on the season and I’m hoping that he will be able to take Colon deep tonight.
- High Cost – Jimmy Paredes – Baltimore Orioles
Jimmy Paredes has been a welcome addition to the Orioles offensive, especially after losing Nelson Cruz in the offseason, as Paredes is currently hitting .364 with 5 homeruns and 18 RBI’s on the season. Paredes has been raking it as of late as he has hit .423 (11-26) over the past week with 2 doubles, a homerun and 6 RBI’s. Paredes will be facing off against the right-handed Jared Weaver of the Angels, and although Paredes is 0-2 lifetime against Weaver, he is hitting .360 against right-handed pitching on the season and has collected all 5 of his homeruns from hitting from the left-side of the plate. With Paredes playing at the hitting friendly Camden Yards, on top that he is hitting .419 at home on the season, makes him be best 2B to spend some money on today.
- Value Pick – Cory Spangenberg - San Diego Padres
Spangenberg was buried on the depth chart for the Padres at the beginning of the season, but since he has had some opportunities to play, he has taken advantage of it as the rookie second baseman is hitting .293 and has been on a tear over his last two games hitting .500 (4-8) with 2 homeruns and 2 RBI’s. I imagine the left-hand hitting Spangenberg will be back in the lineup tonight as he faces the right-hander Jordan Zimmerman of the Nationals as has hit .314 against right-handed pitching on the season. I don’t expect Spangenberg to keep up the success he has had over the past two games, however, as he is facing a righties and his price is still quite low (mid-$2000), I’m thinking of riding the hot hand tonight.
- High Cost – Marcus Semien – Oakland Athletics
When it comes to high-cost players at the shortstop position, there really isn’t much to choose from currently besides Troy Tulowitzki or Marcus Semien, however and tonight I’m going with Semien as Tulowitzki has to go against Kershaw. On the season, Semien is hitting .307 with 6 homeruns and 15 RBI’s while also swiping 6 bases. Semien has been great as of late hitting .423 over the past week with 2 triples and 3 homeruns. Semien with face the lefty Carlos Rodon tonight and although he has never faced Rodon in his career, he is hitting .400 against left-handed pitching on the season. Semien is hitting .308 at home on the season and for the fact that he has shown he can hit for power and possibly get a SB or two, makes him a strong play on a daily basis.
- Value Pick – Freddy Galvis – Philadelphia Phillies
Similar to Cory Spangenberg, I’m going to stick with the hot-hand who is currently still at a low price in Philadelphia’s Freddy Galvis. Galvis is hitting .353 on the season with a homerun, 9 RBI’s and 3 SB’s. Galvis is hitting .440 over the past week and has collected at least one base hit in 7 of his last 8 games including a perfect 3 for 3 performance with a BB and 2 R’s in last night’s game against Pittsburgh. Galvis will be facing Chase Anderson of the Diamondbacks on Friday, and although he has faced the right-hander before, he is hitting .319 against right-handed pitching on the season.
- High Cost – Matt Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals
Carpenter seems to be fully recovered from his fatigue that plagued him for the majority last week and a healthy Carpenter usually means good things for your fantasy lineups. Carpenter is only hitting .231 over the last week however is still hitting .322 with 6 homeruns and 23 RBI’s on the season. Carpenter hasn’t faced Shane Greene of the Detroit Tigers in his career, however, Greene has been a hit or miss pitcher so far in 2015 and when he’s off, he has been hit real hard. Carpenter is hitting .318 and slugging .635 against right-handed pitching on the season and as he has an impressive .355 average at Busch Stadium, he is a good player to spend some money on today.
- Value Pick – Nick Castellanos – Detroit tigers
I’m staying in St. Louis for my value pick at third base today, as I’m going to go with Nick Castellanos of the Detroit Tigers. Castellanos has always struggled putting up a solid average in MLB as he is a career .256 hitter, however, Castellano does have some good pop in his bat and can certainly drive the ball for extra base hits and homeruns. Castellano is hitting just .240 on the season with 3 homeruns and 13 RBI’s, however, he is hitting .350 over the past week and is 4 for his last 7 with 2 BB, 2 R’s and a homerun. Castellanos will be up against Carlos Martinez of the St. Louis Cardinals tonight who has really been struggling as he has given up at least 7 ER’s in his last two starts. Castellano is generally a boom or bust pick as you’re hoping he can connect on one, however as he is not of bad value as his price tag is pretty much as low as you can get at the position.
- High Cost – Mike Trout– Los Angeles Angels
Mike Trout is off to another great season as although the average is a bit down in 2015, Trout is still stuffing the stat sheet when it comes to the offensive categories. On the season, Trout is hitting .289 with 9 homeruns and 10 RBI’s and as he will be making a trip to Camden Yards, I think he is due for a very nice series even though he has hit only .235 over the past week. Trout will be going up against Wei-Yin Chen of the Baltimore Orioles in which he is a lifetime 1 for 3 against with a homerun. Trout is hitting .316 away from home on the season and .280 against left-handed pitching in 2015.
- High Cost – Nelson Cruz – Seattle Mariners
When watching the Seattle vs. Boston game last night, the announcers were talking about how the Seattle players feel that Nelson Cruz will be the first one ever to hit it out of ballpark at Safeco Field. As soon as they said this, knowing that he is facing Clay Buchholz tonight, I can just feel a monster homerun for Cruz tonight. Cruz has been the best offensive player in the AL early in 2015 as he has posted a .361 average with 15 homeruns and 29 RBI’s. Cruz has had success against Buchholz as he has posted a career .417 average with a homerun and 3 RBI’s. Cruz has hit .315 against righties on the season and .343 at home and has he has generally killed the red sox over the past few years (hitting .320 with 9 homeruns in the past three seasons). I don’t think Cruz will hit one out of the ball park tonight, but I do think he has a great shot of at least getting one over the fence.
- High Value – David DeJesus – Detroit Tigers
I’m going with David DeJesus as my first value pick in the outfield tonight as the veteran hitter has posted a solid .300 average with 2 homeruns and 13 RBI’s in 2015 and has a good matchup against a struggling Phil Hughes of the Minnesota Twins. In his career against Hughes, De Jesus has posted a .600 (6-10) average with a triple, a homerun and 5 RBI’s. DeJesus generally only sees playing time against right-handed pitchers and should get the start tonight as he is hitting .324 away from Tropicana Field on the season. Phil Hughes has really struggled on the season and has given up 9 homeruns in just 44.0 IP on the season and as DeJesus does have the power to hit one out at the hitting friendly Target Field, he has great value tonight.
- Value Pick – Curtis Granderson – New York Mets
I went with Curtis Granderson earlier this week and I’m going back to him on Friday as he has had great success against Kyle Lohse of the Milwaukee Brewers in his career. Granderson is currently hitting .241 on the season with 3 homeruns and 10 RBI’s however, has posted a career .471 (8-17) average with a triple, homerun, and 5 RBI’s against Lohse. Granderson is hitting .272 against right-handers and has been hitting better at home on the season, and although the veteran is getting into his mid-30’s, he still have enough pop in his bat and speed in his legs to get us a homerun and/or SB tonight.