Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice – 7/4/15 (Late Games)
MLB Picks for your MLB Daily Fantasy Leagues
July 4th, 2015
Daily Fantasy Baseball – 7/4/15 (Late Games)
Happy 4th of July!
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Here is my lineup for tonight’s games. Please note that I’m using the salary cap based on FanDuel prices.
Also, as this is written the day before/morning of the games, please check the lineups and weather to ensure you have all active players going tonight and that any pitching matchups mentioned below haven’t changed. Good Luck everyone!
Pitcher – Zack Greinke – Los Angeles Dodgers
Although he has a tough match up against Matt Harvey, I’m going to roll with Zack Greinke tonight as I just don’t think the weak Mets lineup will be able to do anything against Greinke on Saturday. Greinke comes into this matchup was an outstanding 1.58 ERA and 0.91 WHIP and has struck out 94 batters in 108.1 IP. The New York Mets have really struggled offensively as of late and currently have a .232 batting average against RHP which ranks 29th in all of MLB. Greinke is holding the current Mets roster to a .238 roster and has held his opponents to a .203 batting average on the season. Against RHP, the Mets rank 6th in MLB in total strikeouts while Greinke comes into this matchup with a solid 7.8 K/9 ratio (career 8.1 K/9). I expect tonight’s game to be a pitcher’s duel with two of the NL’s best going against each other, however, I just like Greinke’s matchup better and think he can easily get us 7 or 8 innings tonight with 6-8 K’s and a win.
Catcher – Miguel Montero – Chicago Cubs
Miguel Montero is having a decent season with the Cubs as although the veteran catcher is hitting just .245 on the season, he has been able to connect for 10 homeruns in 2015. Montero will be up against Jarred Cosart of the Miami Marlins on Saturday in which in his limited experience against the right-hander has a .666 average (2 for 3) with a RBI. I like Montero today as he has fared much better against RHP in his career as just over the past three seasons, he has a respectable .770 OPS against RHP compared to a .632 OPS against LHP. Montero is hitting .333 so far in July and for the small price tag ($2400), I think he has some solid value today and could get us a homerun.
First Base – Joe Mauer – Minnesota Twins
I’m going to look to save some money today at first base and go with Joe Mauer of the Minnesota Twins as Mauer has been hitting well as of late and has a very favorable matchup against Joe Blanton of the Kansas City Royals on Saturday. Mauer hasn’t shown much at the plate this season as the career .316 hitter has posted just a .263 average with 4 homeruns and 39 RBI’s, however, Mauer is hitting .304 over the past week. The biggest reason why I like this matchup today is that Mauer has been outstanding against the right handed Blanton as in his career, he has posted a .407 (11-27) average and 1.059 OPS. Blanton has fared far worse against LHB this year as he is allowing a .775 OPS vs. LHB compared to a .592 OPS vs. RHB. Mauer seems certainly past his prime as a hitter, but I think he still has more in the tank that he has shown so far in 2015 and I think he can have a good night at small price for us against Blanton.
Second Base – Omar Infante – Kansas City Royals
Omar Infante isn’t tearing up at the offensive stat sheet so far in 2015 as the 13 year veteran is hitting just .233 with no homeruns and 23 RBI’s, however, as I’m saving my money for the outfield and that Infante has a great matchup against Mike Pelfrey of the Minnesota Twins, he is going to be my choice on Saturday. Infante has been great against Pelfrey in his career as he has posted a .410 (16-39) average and .927 OPS. Infante hit .303 in July last year and has collected at least one hit in 3 of his last 4 games. Pelfrey has been hit hard as of late as he has given up an astonishing 34 hits in his last 20.1 IP and as I think this trend will continue as the current Royals line is hitting .358 against Pelfrey, I think Omar can certainly get us some decent points for a low price tonight.
Shortstop – Jean Segura – Milwaukee Brewers
Jean Segura has a good recipe for success tonight as he is facing a rookie right-hander that didn’t put up impressive stats in the minors and faces a catcher who thrown out 15% of runners on the season. Segura is having an average season for the Brewers as the shortstop is hitting .257 with 3 homeruns and 23 RBI’s on the season, however, Segura has been hot as of late as in his past two games he is 4 for 8 with 2 walks and 2 RBI’s. Segura will be up against the rookie right-hander in Cincinnati’s Josh Smith in which in his first two starts in the Major Leagues, has posted a 5.63 ERA and 2.13 WHIP as he has walked 10 batters in just 8.0 IP. I think Milwaukee players will be a popular stack option today and I think if Segura can get on base, he will have a good opportunity to score some runs and get some SB’s.
Third Base – Trevor Plouffe – Minnesota Twins
Trevor Plouffe is having a decent season with the Twins as the third baseman is hitting .247 with 10 homeruns and 42 RBI’s. Plouffe has a good match up against Kansas City’s Joe Blanton as in his career he has posted a .333 (3-9) average with 2 homeruns and 2 RBI’s. Blanton has pitched decent in his limited starts in 2015 but don’t be fooled as the right hander has posted a career 4.49 ERA and 1.36 WHIP and is coming off his recent start against the Astros in which he lasted just 2.2 innings while giving up 5 hits and 5 ER. Plouffe has struggled a bit since May but certainly how the power to get extra base hits and with a favorable pitching matchup, has good value for the $2800 price tag.
Outfield – Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers
Ryan Braun has been on fire as of late as the slugging outfielder is hitting .483 over the past week and has now posted a .277 average with 15 homeruns, 54 RBI’s, and 10 SB. Braun will be facing the rookie Josh Smith from the Cincinnati Reds who I mentioned earlier, has really struggled in his two starts in MLB. Braun has actually fared better against RHP on the season as he has posted a .281 average and .842 OPS. Braun has been great against Cincinnati so far in 2015 as he posted an impressive .387 average and 1.212 OPS. As I mentioned above, Josh Smith has really struggled with his control as he has posted a 2.13 WHIP so far in 2015 and I think Braun could have a big day as he should have plenty of Brewers on base when he comes up to the plate on Saturday.
Outfield – David Peralta – Arizona Diamondbacks
David Peralta is hitting .333 over the last week and has posted a .269 average with 7 homeruns and 35 RBI’s so far in 2015. Peralta is generally a safe play when facing RHP’s and currently has a .823 OPS against righties in 2015. Peralta will be facing the right-handed David Hale of the Colorado Rockies who is allowing LHB to have a .307 average and .939 OPS against him in 2015. Hale really struggled in his one start against the Diamondbacks in 2015 as he lasted just 4.2 innings while giving up 5 ER’s on 8 hits and 3 walks. Peralta is hitting .299 during night games and I think he worth the investing tonight as the Diamondbacks should have a solid night against the Rockies.
Outfield – Kelly Johnson – Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia will be starting Kevin Correia tonight as his start got pushed back to today. I’m wrote this about Kelly Johnson yesterday, and will be going with him today for the same reasons I was going for him yesterday. Here is my comments about Johnson from yesterday:
As I only have $2200 left to spend on my last OF position I need to find some value and I think Kelly Johnson is a great value pick on Friday as he has had great success against Kevin Correia of the Philadelphia Phillies. Johnson has battled injuries this season and is currently hitting .259 with 6 homeruns and 22 RBI’s on the season, however, I expect him to get the start on Friday as he has a .333 average (10-30) with 5 homeruns and 10 RBI’s against the right-handed Correia in his career. Correia has really struggled against LHP on the season as he is allowing them to have a .333 average and 1.041 OPS against him. Johnson has hit all 6 of his homeruns against RHP on the season and is hitting .300 during night games in 2015. As I mentioned above, I don’t have many options with a limited budget left, however, Johnson is a solid pick if you’re looking to save money in the outfield on Friday.