Fantasy Baseball Draft 2016: Pitcher Draft Busts (SP/RP)
Taking a Look at the Potential Busts at SP/RP in the 2016 Fantasy Draft
March 29, 2016
We’re coming down to the wire in the fantasy baseball draft season, and it’s time for us to finish up the research and get on the clock. On that note, today we’re checking out the darker side of the draft and visiting with a few pitchers who should raise a red flag if you’re thinking of adding them to your team. Some of these hurlers may turn into outright busts, and some may not be worth their average draft positions when the stats come in. Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.
Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals: Even though he’s coming off a torn Achilles which caused him to miss the majority of the 2015 campaign, Wainwright will earn a high pick on name alone.
That being said, there are some concerns you should have on him. His strikeout numbers have diminished in recent years and he’s got a lot of miles on that arm. At age 34, we can’t envision him getting back to that elite form this season.
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Trevor Rosenthal, RP, St. Louis Cardinals: Let’s stick in St. Louis for a moment and visit with Rosenthal. He’s coming off a 48-save year in 2015, logging a 2.10 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. That will make him a hot draft commodity when it’s time to get to the RP slot.
Still, you shouldn’t expect those types of numbers from him in 2016. Almost every projection out there has him taking a step back--he’ll probably finish with saves somewhere in the 30s and an ERA closer to 3.00.
Dallas Keuchel, SP, Houston Astros: Don’t get us wrong--we think Keuchel will have a fine season and be a solid starter for your fantasy team. However, he won’t reach the stratospheric heights he did last year, when he won 20 games and posted a 2.48 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP.
Keuchel will likely land somewhere in the 10-15 victory range with an ERA around 3.00--obviously nothing to sneeze at, just watch out where you’re drafting him and make sure it’s not because of last season’s numbers.
Francisco Liriano, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates: Liriano has been the mark of inconsistency over the past few years, and it’s hard telling where he’ll land. He put up a 12-7 record last year with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, but will likely take another step back.
Liriano’s projections show it may be hard for him to reach double-digit wins this year, and he won’t be pitching deep into games as per usual. You won’t be getting 200+ strikeouts here again, either.
Zack Greinke, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks: Greinke is another guy who won’t be an outright bust, but isn’t likely to recreate his 2015 numbers, either. The change in ballparks is a big concern; Chase Field is more of a hitters’ playground.
You can expect Greinke to deliver top-20 pitcher numbers, but just be sure not to reach too far on him. If someone wants to draft him in the top 10 among the position, let them take the risk.
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