2021 American Express: PGA Tour Golf Picks, Odds, Longshot Picks, Predictions 1/21/21

2021 American Express: PGA Tour Golf Picks, Odds, Longshot Picks, Predictions 1/21/21 Photo by Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

American Express

Thursday, January 21, 2021 at 1:00 PM (PGA West Stadium Course)

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The PGA Tour’s 2021 American Express golf tournament begins this Thursday.

Before I dive into my favorite golf bets let’s discuss a few key facts that I think are of importance to golf bettors that are considering placing wagers on golfers with higher odds this week. 

When it comes to betting on longshots or sleepers in professional golf, the key, in my opinion, is locating tournaments that have produced previous winners that have won the event at higher odds previously. 

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Having stated that, if I was to target a specific golf tournament on the PGA Tour schedule to place a few longshot bets it would be the American Express. Why would this event be the first tournament on my list? Let me explain.  

Two of the last three winners of the American Express have won the event at significantly higher odds. Let me be more specific. Andrew Landry won the 2020 American Express. Landry’s odds to win the event prior to the start of the event was +20000. Adam Long won the 2019 American Express at odds of +60000. Clearly, golfers that are not expected to win this event can certainly do so. That's not an opinion, that's a fact based on the data. 

Now that we have established that golfers at higher odds can definitely perform at this week’s PGA Tour event, let’s turn our attention to my longshot wagers. Here are my favorite longshot bets for the 2021 American Express!

Here is a golfer to consider putting on your card to finish in the top five this week.

Chris Kirk +1200 – The 35 year old American arrives at this week’s American Express on the heels of two consecutive top 18 finishes on the PGA Tour, including a second place result at the Sony Open last week. 

In relation to this week's current listed 2021 American Express field, in the last 12 rounds played on the PGA Tour, Kirk ranks sixth in birdie or better percentage, eighth in strokes gained off the tee, and eighth in strokes gained on par fours.

Here is a golfer to consider putting on your card to finish in the top 10 this week.

Andrew Landry +1200 – If you are looking for a golfer to fit the narrative of a “course horse” you have found your man. The American has played the American Express every year since 2018. In those three events just mentioned, Landry has three consecutive top 28 finishes, including a win at the 2020 American Express.

Yes, I know that Landry’s current form is by no means spectacular. That’s just fine. Landry arrived to last year’s American Express in absolutely awful form. Landry had five consecutive missed cuts when he arrived to last year’s event and he won. This year, his current form is not what I would consider bad. He has two top 38 finishes in his last three events on the PGA Tour, including a fourth place result at the RSM Classic.   

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Hans’s Pick See Above

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Sports Chat Place site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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