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2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational: PGA Tour Golf Picks, Odds, Longshot Picks, Predictions 3/4/21

2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational: PGA Tour Golf Picks, Odds, Longshot Picks, Predictions 3/4/21
March 4, 2021 6:00 am EDT

The first round of the PGA Tour’s 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational starts on Thursday morning.

Before I discuss my favorite longshot golf bets for this week, let’s take a look at the betting odds of past champions of this event to see if we can find any historical trends.

Here is a list of the last six winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational including that golfer’s opening odds the week they won the event and the score that player posted to win:     

2020 Tyrrell Hatton +5500 (-5)

2019 Francesco Molinari +3300 (-12)

2018 Rory McIlroy +2000 (-18)

2017 Marc Leishman +10000 (-11)

2016 Jason Day +1400 (-17)

2015 Matt Every +30000 (-19)

As I evaluated the key statistics of the previous winners of this week’s PGA Tour event noted above, it became apparent to me early on that the majority of these golfers are known to be outstanding putters. The data that I reviewed in my research for this article verified my initial thoughts. All of the players noted above performed exceptionally well in one specific statistical category the year that golfer won the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The statistic I am making reference to is strokes gained putting. Just to provide some perspective, the last six winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational ranked on average, in relation to the field, sixth in strokes gained putting the week that player won the event.

Clearly, golf bettors need to be looking for golfers for potential wagers that are arriving at this week’s tournament putting well if they expect to cash winning tickets on Sunday night. 

Here are two golfers to consider placing on your card to finish in the top five.

Charley Hoffman +1600 – Hoffman has two top 14 finishes in his last four events on the PGA Tour, including a seventh place result at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It should also be noted that Hoffman finished second at the 2017 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

In relation to this week’s current listed 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational field, in the last eight rounds played on the PGA Tour, Hoffman ranks ninth in strokes gained approach, 11th in GIR (greens in regulation), and 11th in birdie or better percentage.

Chris Kirk +2000 – The 35 year old American has three top 16 finishes in his last four events on the PGA Tour, including a second place result at the Sony Open last month. Due to the fact that Kirk performed so well at the Sony Open I decided to review the player data for that tournament. After four rounds of competitive play at the 2021 Sony Open, in relation to the field, Kirk ranked fourth in putts per GIR (1.625).  

Hans Geevers's Free Pick: See Above

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Hans Geevers

I have been an avid fan of sports since I was a kid. Additionally, I have been betting on sports for the better part of the last two decades! I have been married to my wife Dawn for over 21 years. I am also the proud father of Hannah! These ladies provide me the inspiration to live each day to it's fullest.

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