2021 Players Championship: PGA Tour Golf Picks, Odds, Longshot Picks, Predictions 3/11/21

The first round of the PGA Tour’s 2021 Players Championship starts on Thursday morning.

Before I discuss my favorite longshot golf bets for this week, let’s take a look at the betting odds of past champions of this tournament to see if we can find any historical trends.

Here is a list of the last five winners of the Players Championship including that golfer’s opening odds the week they won the event and the score that player posted to win:       

2020 *The event was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

2019 Rory McIlroy +1400 (-16)

2018 Webb Simpson +10000 (-18)

2017 Si Woo Kim +50000 (-10)

2016 Jason Day +1200 (-15)

2015: Rickie Fowler +6600 (-12)    

As I evaluated the key statistics of the previous winners noted above, it became apparent to me early on that all five players performed exceptionally well in one specific statistical category the year they won the Players Championship. The statistic I am making reference to in my previous statement is strokes gained around the green. Just to provide some perspective, all of the winners of the Players Championship noted above ranked on average 16th in strokes gained around the green the year that golfer won the golf tournament.

It’s time to get to what I love doing the most! Here are my favorite longshot bets for the 2021 Players Championship.

Here are two golfers to consider placing on your card to finish in the top ten.

Brendan Steele +1600 – Steele has three top 21 finishes in his last six events played on the PGA Tour, including a fourth place result at the Sony Open. It should also be noted that Steele finished sixth at the 2017 Players Championship. 

In relation to this week’s current listed 2021 Players Championship field, in the last 24 rounds played on the PGA Tour, Steele ranks 12th in strokes gained off the tee, 13th in driving accuracy, and 18th in GIR (greens in regulation).

Andrew Putnam +1800 – The 32 year old American has three top seven finishes in his last five tournaments played on the PGA Tour, including a fourth place result at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. Yes, I know that he missed the cut in his only previous appearance at TPC Sawgrass in 2019. I also know that Putnam is a far better golfer now than he was two years ago. In my opinion, Putnam presents outstanding value at his current odds of +1800 to finish inside the top ten.