Churchill Downs- 11/04/20 Horse Racing Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Churchill Downs- 11/04/20 Horse Racing Picks, Odds, and Predictions Photo by Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Churchill Downs

November 4, 2020, 1.m.

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Churchill Downs is putting out a nine-race card on Wednesday, here is a look at three of those events.

Race 3 -- Maiden Special Weight (Purse -$85,000) 10 2-year-old fillies, including seven first-timers, will sprint five furlongs on the turf.

Analyst: This appears to be a two-horse race though you never know with youngsters and first-time starters. #8 Risky Reward (7/5) returns to the turf after a nondescript debut on the dirt the last time out. Risky Reward, who finished second in her debut on the grass, has some speed and gets distance relief here. Trainer Brendan Walsh has a 13% win rate and a 53% WPS percentage with 2-year-old horses on the turf this year. #3 Aunt Joie (20/1) returns to the artificial surface, where she finished third in her debut, after two poor performances on the dirt. The Kentucky horse has shown some early speed in her previous outings and gets a little distance relief. Plus, she put up a fabulous four-furlong workout recently. #10 Megan Clara’s (8/1) is also making her debut and the daughter of Munnings has been training well for Brendan Walsh. #1 Sisi (12/1), who is making her debut, has good pedigree. Trainer Matt Shirer -- owner of a 33% WPS with first-timers -- had Sisi training decently well. #6 Della Frost (15/1) is making her debut after putting out consistent solid workouts.

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Best Bets: An exacta box of #8, #3, #10.

Race 6- Maiden Special Weight ($85,000) 10 fillies, along with seven also eligibles, three 3 and 4 years-old will go one mile on the turf.

Analysts: This should be a wide-open and exciting race. #10 Sail On Eileen (5/1) has raced extremely well since making her debut at the beginning of the year, recording six straight top-3 finishes. The daughter of American Pharoah turned out a fantastic 47.7-second four-furlong workout in her last training session. #12 My Mane Girl (6/1), an also-eligible, is making her debut this year. The 3-year-old daughter of Fast Anna showed well in her first career outing, leading the majority of the five-and-one-half furlongs before giving way down the stretch after being bothered. My Mane Girl has turned out six consecutive workout sessions for trainer Kenneth McPeek, who has a career 16% strike rate and a 45% WPS percentage with 2-year-old female runners.#4 Dinn Righ (10/1) is making her second start on American soil where she finished sixth after stalking the pace and then weakening. The 3-year-old Kentucky horse gets distance relief in this one and she has been training well. #1Margaret’s Joy (4/1) has raced extremely well in her four career races, registering at least an ESpeed of 84 in each event. She has finished “in the money” in each of her last two outings and the daughter of English Channel gets distance relief in this one. #11 Zoology (12/1), an also-eligible, is making her debut and she has been training decently well. Trainer Brian Lynch has a career 34% WPS rate with first-timers.

Note: If race ends up on the main track, #1Powder River (3/1) -- an MTO entrant -- should be heavenly considered.

Best Bets: I like a show bet on the #10. I also like a show bet on the #4.

Race 8 -- Optional Claiming $100,000 (Purse -$89,000)

Seven 3-year-old colts and geldings will go one and one-sixteenth miles.

Analyst: I expect this to be an excellent event that appears to be wide open. #6 What a Country (5/1) appears to be bred for distance as he has a victory at this distance as well as at one and one-eighth miles. What a Country, who has been training a longer distance, and has two wins at Churchill Downs in three starts here. #5 Sonneman (7/5) has shown improvement in each of his last three outings and is 8-2-4-0 on the dirt. Sonneman is coming off a second-place finish at this distance and level where he finished ahead of both Ragtime Blues and What a Country. The son of Curlin was second two races ago in a Grade 2 stakes event here at Churchill. #7 Mailman Country (6/1) has proven that he can win sprints and route races. The son of Goldencents is stretching out from six furlongs but he does have the stamina to go this distance having gone over a mile in two previous events. He has cashed in both of his optional allowance claiming events. This is his second event off a long layoff. #3 Cash Logistics (30/1) has been racing well, finishing first or second in all five of his races with four of those meets being on the dirt. The Indiana-bred is stretching out to this distance and comes to Churchill from Indiana Grand where he picked up a stakes victory. He put up a good four-furlong workout for trainer Genevieve Londono, who has a 47% WPS percentage.#2 Ragtime Blues (5/1) is the son of Union Rags and he has a 25% strike rate and a 75% WPS percentage for his career.

Best Bets: I like a show bet on the #6. I also like #6. #5, #7 exacta box.

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Daniel’s Pick Churchill Downs

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Sports Chat Place site consensus.

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