Gulfstream Park West
Nov. 14, 2020/ 2:03 p.m.
Five 3-year-old and upward Florida-bred colts and geldings are slated to go one mile on the dirt in this $60,000 stakes race.
#1 Debbie’s Passion (9/2) is the least experienced of the runners, with nine career starts, and has not hit the board in either of his previous two stakes races. However, the 4-year-old son of First Dude has recorded three straight top-3 finishes and has three victories in his last seven outings. Debbie’s Passion, who raced on Oct. 27, is a closer who has a second-place finish in his only attempt at this distance. He has trained well for Luis Carvajel Jr., who has a career 26% strike rate and 49% WPS percentage, recently. This is also Debbie’s Passion’s second race off of a long layoff. Slowest horse in the field.
#2 Noble Drama (1/1) is the favorite and for good reason, as he has won two straight stakes events and has finished in the top-2 six of his last eight starts. He enters this foray in excellent form and the 5-year-old gelded son of Gone Astray is coming off a one-length victory in the FTBOA Sire Wildcat Heir Stake, on September 26, for his third win in five one-mile starts. Noble Drama has gotten the best of Garten and Tie in all three of the races those two have squared of as well as two of the three times he has matched up against Red Crescent. Jockey Emisael Jaramillo, who has a 21% strike rate during the current meet at GPW, has guided Noble Drama to three wins and a second in four rides.
#3 Quenane (15/1) is not in good form as he has not recorded a top-3 finish in any of his last four starts, which includes being behind the winner by more than 10 lengths in each of his last two starts. He does get distance relief and earned a victory the last time going one mile, where the 6-year-old gelding went 31-11-7-3. Quenane also has three wins and one third-place finish in six career outings at GPW.
#4 Red Crescent (4/1) is a stalker who likes to be among the top-flight of horses. He has not raced since the beginning of September although the 6-year-old gelding has been training well recently. Red Crescent has run well overall recently and at GPW where he is 8-3-2-1. Jockey Samy Camacho has a17% win rate in route races at GPW this meet.
#5 Garter and Tie (5/2) is a closer who has finished in the money in each of his last three races. While the 4-year-colt is more of a sprinter than a route runner, he is 4-1-1-1 at this distance. He has not fared well against Noble Drama and has finished behind Red Crescent the only time they squared off.
Analyst: I expect that Noble Drama and Red Crescent will duel for the title. Noble Drama will likely look to control the pace though if Red Crescent can seize the lead and open up a little around the halfway point, he could skate away with the victory. But it could be wide-open if Noble Drama and Red Crescent get in a speed duel, thus leaving the door open for Garter and Tie. Debbie’s Passion is the wildcard.