Grade III Red Smith Stakes- 11/21/20 Horse Racing Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Grade III Red Smith Stakes- 11/21/20 Horse Racing Picks, Odds, and Predictions Photo by Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Aqueduct Raceway

November 21, 2020/ 3:45 p.m.

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11 colts and geldings 3-year-old and upwards will go one mile and three furlongs in this Grade 3 Red Smith Stakes event that has a purse of $100,000.

#1Real Factor (50/1) has been really consistent over the last three races, posting a top-3 finish in each of those outings. Has five cashes in the last six starts since moving to trainer James Lawrence’s barn has only been outside the top-4 in three of his last 12 meets. A closer, Real Factor is 12-0-2-4 on turf.

#2 Changi (50/1) has not finished in the money in the past five events and is just 19-2-2-2 on the grass. However, Changi has fared decently well when given an inside post.

Wonder who the Top Experts Picked? Click Here To Find Out

#3Postulation (15/1) has been in fine form the past few years, racking up seven cashes in stakes events including three graded stakes races top-3 finishes. He is 29-5-7-4 on the turf though the 8-year-old gelding has not placed in two races at this distance. He is also 0-2 against Red Knight and 0-1 versus Sandler’s Joy. Should be considered in exotic bets.

#4 Sadlers Joy (8/5) also has been running extremely well, recording six consecutive top-4 finishes which include four cashes. Has not raced since Oct. 3. Trainer Thomas Albertrani owns an 18% strike rate when his horses are coming off of a 31-60 day layoff. Plus, jockey Joel Rosario who has been outstanding at Aqueduct will be in the saddle. An offspring of Kitten Joy, the 7-year-old horse has a 26-4-4-10 record in graded stakes events on the turf and is 13-3-1-5 at the current distance as well as 2-2-0-0 at Aqueduct. He is 1-0 versus Red Knight and 0-1 against Aquaphobia. Favorite who is looking for a second straight Red Smith title.

#5 North Dakota (10-1) is coming off of a fourth-place finish in the Grade 3 Sycamore Stakes at Keeneland on Oct. 15. North Dakota is 10-3-0-2 on the grass and has three victories while also not finishing worse than fifth in five starts under trainer Claude McGanghey. He produced a solid five-furlong workout in the last training session. Middle of the pack.

#6 Tintoretto (50/1) is making his third start of the year though his last outing was in August. The 4-year-old colt has not finished better than fourth in six races on American soil. Do not consider.

#7 Fame to Famous (50/1) has not been in great form as he has failed to finish in the money in seven straight races. Just 9-1-1-1 on the turf. Do not consider.

#8 Ziyad (9/2) just missed getting up for place as the 6-year-old Great Britain gelding used a fast close to pass three competitors and end up a neck behind Postulation. Ziyad, who also took third in the $800k CanInternational at Woodbine, is 22-5-6-6 on the turf lifetime. Top contender.

#9 Aquaphobia (6/1) finished seventh in the Sycamore Stakes in his last effort, although 7-year-old son of Giants Causeway recently won the Grade 1 United Nations and was third at the Grade 1 Sword Dancer Stakes. He has been in the money in four of the seven races under trainer Mike Maker and is 37-9-6-7 on the turf overall. Maker’s horses have fared well on turf and at the current distance as well as when coming off a 31-60 day break. Plus, Maker and jockey Irad Ortiz have a 25% strike rate when teaming up. Aquaphobia is coming off a good last workout as well. Outsider with a shot.

#10 Red Knight (5/2)won his last time out (G3 sycamore stakes) to give him eight victories to go along with six seconds and a third-pace result in 18 career events. While Red Knight does not have a win in three races at one mile and three furlongs, he does have a pair of second-place finishes. He also has a 57.1% WPS in stakes starts. Trainer Bill Mott’s horses have a 20% winning percentage when coming off a victory in the last race and a 21% strike rate when coming off a 31-to-60 ay layoff. Top contender who was second in the race a year ago.

#11 Doctor Mounty (15/1) has been running well lately and won the $100K Henry Clark two starts ago. Owns a career 11-2-1-1 graded stakes record on turf.

Analyst: I really like Sadler Joy as he gets a great post position and he has run well at this distance as well as at Aqueduct. Plus, it is an added advantage to Rosario in the saddle. I expect Acquaphobia and Postulation to battle for the lead throughout. However, this looks like a race where the winner will come off the pace. North Dakota, Ziyad, and Doctor Mounty could also be in the battle down the stretch

Projection of order:1. Sadlers Joy 2. Aquaphobia 3. North Dakota 4. Ziyad 5.Real Factor 6. Doctor Mounty 7. Red Knight 8. Tintoretto 9. Postulation 10. Fame to Famous 11. Changi

See Who The Experts Picked To Win This One

Daniel’s Pick Best Bets: Win bet: #4. Show bet #5.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Sports Chat Place site consensus.

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