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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Free Pick - 8/17/13

Cincinnati Reds (69-53) at Milwaukee Brewers (53-69)

MLB Baseball: Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 7:10 pm (Miller Park)

Mat Latos (R) (12-3) (3.039) vs. Wily Peralta (R) (8-12) (4.303)

Milwaukee Brewers +132 / Cincinnati Reds -142 --- Over/Under: 7.5 See the Latest Odds


The Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers continue their competitive series Saturday after two one-run affairs. Milwaukee avenged a 2-1 opening defeat on Thursday by walking off with a 7-6 victory Friday night.

The Reds drove in two runs right away off the bat of Todd Frazier. The Brewers however scored the next four runs the next two frames via Juan Francisco's home run, Jonathan Lucroy's single and Khris Davis' double. Frazier's fourth-inning HR trimmed Cincinnati's deficit to a run while Chris Heisey pushed the Reds back in front 5-4 during the top of the fifth.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Free Pick - 8/17/13

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Milwaukee though knotted things up at five thanks to Jean Segura's RBI-single. Frazier once again gave the visitors the advantage during the seventh. It stood as the winning hit until Lucroy's walk-off HR sent Brewers fans home happy.

Mat Latos (12-3, 3.04 ERA) has been a beast his last two starts not allowing a run in two wins. After tossing 7.1 shutout innings in Cincinnati Aug. 6 Latos blanked the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field 2-0 with eight magnificent frames. Latos recorded his fifth away victory to two road losses. The only teams to hand Latos away defeats are the Atlanta Braves and Texas Rangers knocking in nine runs, eight earned, during 10.2 innings.

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Latos also beat Chicago on the road May 5 despite yielding three runs during five frames. Latos' three other away wins have seen the opponent tally three runs during 21.1 innings. Milwaukee fell to Latos 13-7 on May 11. The Brewers smacked Latos for seven runs, six earned, during six frames. Milwaukee is 30-of-126 with 17 RBIs all-time, against Latos.

Those numbers don't speak very highly of the Brewers' chances on Saturday to grab a win. An unpredictable Yovani Gallardo (8-9, 4.91 ERA) doesn't help Milwaukee's case. Versus Gallardo the Reds are 57-of-189 with 36 RBIs, 10 of them Joey Votto's, nine Jay Bruce's and nine Ryan Ludwick's.

Gallardo, who has been nursing a hamstring injury, will be making his first start since July 30 only lasting 4.2 frames at the Cubs. At Miller Park Gallardo is 4-5 dropping five of his last seven decisions there. At Cincinnati May 10 and June 15 the Reds scored three times on Gallardo during 10 frames. Gallardo fell 4-3 and won 6-0. Gallardo's head and body are not in the right place to repeat six scoreless innings. I have zero belief in the Brewers even after a walk-off victory.

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