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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Free Pick - 8/27/13

Cincinnati Reds (74-58) at St. Louis Cardinals (77-54)

MLB Baseball: Tuesday, August 27, 2013 at 8:15 pm (Busch Stadium)

Mat Latos (R) (13-4) (2.929) vs. Joe Kelly (R) (5-1) (2.250)

St. Louis Cardinals -105 / Cincinnati Reds -105 --- Over/Under: 7.5 See the Latest Odds


The Cincinnati Reds are in control of their playoff destiny, but if Cincinnati is going to catch the Pittsburgh Pirates or St. Louis Cardinals they're going to have to play better than Monday night. Cincinnati gets a second crack at St. L on Tuesday from Busch Stadium.

The Cards won a wild opener 8-6 which saw the Reds begin ahead 4-0. A three-run third and five-run seventh inning however stemmed the tide to St. Louis who took their first lead during the bottom of the seventh.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Free Pick - 8/27/13

Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Zack Cozart and Todd Frazier tripled in the first four runs of the game. Matt Holliday trimmed Cincinnati's advantage to a run with one swing of the bat. Cozart's double put the Reds ahead by two during the top of the sixth. The Cardinals however crept within a run on Jon Jay's groundout. Then the home squad went ahead via Allen Craig's grand slam. Jay Bruce's HR a frame later wrapped up the scoring.

Mat Latos (13-4, 2.93 ERA) tries to help Cincinnati gain ground on St. L Tuesday. If Latos pitches anything like his last six starts then the Reds will at least stand a chance. Latos has given up seven runs, six earned, during 44 innings in his last six outings, four wins and just one a loss. Cincinnati also fell 4-2 at the San Diego Padres July 30.

Overall though the Reds are 8-7 on the road when Latos gets the start. Latos has a 5-3 away mark only losing to the Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers and Texas Rangers surrendering 11 runs, 10 earned, during 17.2 frames. Latos has conceded six runs, five earned, during 34.1 innings. At Busch April 8 and 29 Latos yielded four, one earned, and zero runs during six frames apiece in two Cincinnati victories, one his. Latos also toppled the Cards 4-2 June 8 with a seven-inning two-run showing. St. Louis is 55-of-173 with 25 RBIs, six Holliday's, versus Latos.

The Cardinals respond with Joe Kelly (5-3, 3.01 ERA) who has won his last five decisions and is 4-0 in August. Kelly is 2-3 at Busch Stadium dropping his first three decisions to the Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh giving up eight runs, seven earned, during seven frames.

Kelly stymied Atlanta and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Busch in August for 6-2 and 5-1 victories. Kelly conceded three runs during 11.1 innings. At St. L Oct. 2 of last year Kelly threw two blank frames in a 3-1 Reds win. On Aug. 24 at Cincinnati Kelly won 8-5 with three one-run innings. Against Kelly the Reds are 15-of-48 with a pair of Justin Upton RBIs. On Tuesday I'll be laying my chips on the Cards.

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