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New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins MLB Pick, Odds, Prediction - 4/25/14

Miami Marlins (10-12) at New York Mets (11-10)

MLB Baseball: Friday, April 25, 2014 at 7:10 pm (Citi Field)

Henderson Alvarez (R) (1-2) (2.662) vs. Zack Wheeler (R) (1-2) (4.629)

The Line: New York Mets -128 / Miami Marlins +118 --- Over/Under: 7 See the Latest Odds


The Miami Marlins and New York Mets will meet Friday night to begin a three-game series.

The Marlins have won four of their last six games, but are just 1-8 on the road this season. In five of those nine road games, the Marlins have been held to two or less runs. Oddly enough, the Marlins are still ranked fifth in the majors with 98 runs and seventh with a .263 batting average. The Marlins had Thursday off and will hope to get another solid outing from Henderson Alvarez, who is 1-2 on the season with a 2.66 ERA, and he has 14 strikeouts in 23.2 innings. Alvarez is 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA in three career starts against the Mets.

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New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins MLB Pick, Odds, Prediction - 4/25/14


The Mets just took three of four from the St. Louis Cardinals and have won seven of their last 10 games to improve to 12-10 on the season. While the Mets offense continues to struggle, the pitching staff has allowed three or less runs in eight of their last 10 games. Offensively is where there is room for the Mets to improve, as Curtis Granderson is batting just .137 and David Wright has seven games with two or more strikeouts. Zack Wheeler will get the nod for the Mets on Friday, and he’s 1-2 with a 4.63 ERA and has 21 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. Wheeler allowed three hits and two runs in seven innings in his only career start against the Marlins.  


The Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 games following an off day and 0-5 in Alvarez's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Mets are 1-4 in Wheeler's last 5 home starts and 8-2 in Wheeler's last 10 starts with 4 days of rest. The Marlins are 6-14 in the last 20 meetings in New York.

I like the value we're getting with the Marlins here. Miami has had a day off to regroup after a tough stretch against the Braves, and the fish have done well when having an off day in the past. The Mets simply haven't been scoring enough, which is a problem if the Marlins offense gets hot in this game, which is likely with the way they've been hitting the ball.

Take the Marlins at plus money. 

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