Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick, Odds, Prediction - 7/22/14
Cincinnati Reds (51-47) at Milwaukee Brewers (54-45)
MLB Baseball: Tuesday, July 22, 2014 at 8:10 pm (Miller Park)
Homer Bailey (R) (8-5) (4.207) vs. Jimmy Nelson (R) (1-1) (5.400)
The Line: Milwaukee Brewers -115 / Cincinnati Reds +105 --- Over/Under: 8.5 See the Latest Odds
TV: FSN-OH, FSN-WI
The Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers square off Tuesday night at Miller Park.
The Reds are 0-4 since the All Star break and are now three games above a .500 record. The issue for the Reds continues to be a lackluster offense, as they’ve scored a combined eight runs in their last four games. In Monday’s loss, the Reds generated just five hits in 31 at bats. The Reds have lost seven straight games when scoring three or less runs. Billy Hamilton has 12 hits in his last 10 games and Todd Frazier has hit safely in eight of his last 10 games. The Reds have an ERA of 3.49, ninth best in baseball. Homer Bailey gets the nod, and he’s 8-5 with a 4.21 ERA and has 105 strikeouts in 117.2 innings. Bailey is 4-8 with a 4.96 ERA in 19 career starts against the Brewers.
USA TODAY Sports
The Brewers are 2-2 since the All Star break but just 4-12 in the month of July. The issues for the Brewers lately has been their pitching staff, as they’ve allowed four or more runs in 13 of their last 18 games. The Brewers have lost 12 straight games when allowing more than three runs. That puts a ton of pressure on a Brewers pitching staff that has an ERA of 3.82. Offensively, Ryan Braun has hit safely in nine straight games. Starting is Jimmy Nelson, who is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and has 11 strikeouts in 10 innings. This is Nelson’s second career game against the Reds.
The Reds are 5-12 in Baileys last 17 starts as an underdog and 7-1 in Baileys last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Brewers are 3-8 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record and 1-6 in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
Bailey has had his moments this season and has pitched extremely well against solid compeition. The Brewers have been so horrible this month that they're hard to trust. I'll take the Reds and the plus money.