Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers - 5/5/16 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Milwaukee Brewers (11-16) at Cincinnati Reds (11-17)
MLB Baseball: Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 7:10 pm (Great American Ball Park)
C Anderson (1-3) (5.55) vs. A Simon (0-3) (13.49)
The Line: Cincinnati Reds -110 / Milwaukee Brewers +100 --- Over/Under: 8.5 See the Latest Odds
TV: FSWI, FSOH
Early Thursday evening in MLB action, we’ve got game one of a weekend set between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park.
The Brewers are coming off a series against the Angels. Milwaukee won games one and two, then on Wednesday L.A. scored four runs in the eighth inning to hand the Brewers a 7-3 loss.
As for the Reds, they tangled with the Giants this week, losing games one and two by a combined 12-7. In Wednesday’s finale, Cincinnati scored five runs in the second inning on the way to a 7-4 victory, preventing the sweep.
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Milwaukee will be trotting out right-hander Chase Anderson for Thursday’s opener. Anderson has been pretty choppy lately, posting a 5.55 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP over five starts and 24.1 innings for a 1-3 start. On Saturday when we last saw him, Anderson gave up six runs (five earned) on nine hits to the Marlins in just 4.1 innings.
It’s pretty clear who the top dogs are in the Brewers’ batting order. Ryan Braun is out front with 34 hits, 15 runs, five homers and 22 RBI so far this year. Chris Carter has also come on strong with nine homers and 21 RBI. Jonathan Lucroy is also hitting well in 2016, with 27 hits and 13 runs. Carter and Lucroy combined to go 0-for-8 on Wednesday, however.
Over on the Cincinnati side, we’ll be seeing right-hander Alfredo Simon toeing the rubber in Thursday’s game. The Reds keep turning to Simon this year despite a cringe-inducing 13.50 ERA and a 2.85 WHIP over his four starts and 13.1 innings. Simon could only go four innings in his last appearance on Saturday, giving up six hits and four walks to the Pirates.
Cincinnati has also had a few production problems at the plate, but they’ve got some bright spots mixed in there. Eugenio Suarez has managed six homers, 28 hits and 18 RBI, while Jay Bruce isn’t too far back with four homers and 18 RBI. Bruce had a hit and a run in the Giants finale. Joey Votto leads the team in walks (14), but has turned them into just nine runs. Votto is also having a bit of BA trouble (.227) this season.
The Brewers are 4-1 in their last five games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, but 1-4 in their last five game ones of a series. As for the Reds, they’re 1-4 in their last five Thursday games and 6-20 in their last 26 against the National League Central.
Given Simon’s significant struggles this year (he’s probably still bothered by that biceps injury), there’s no way I can side with Cincinnati here. I expect a big Brewers victory in the opener, and wouldn’t be surprised to see the over come in as well.