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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - 5/17/16 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Miami Marlins (21-17) at Philadelphia Phillies (22-17)

MLB Baseball: Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 7:05 pm (Citizens Bank Park)

W Chen (3-1) (4.40) vs. Vincent Velasquez (4-1) (2.70)

The Line: Philadelphia Phillies -110 / Miami Marlins +100 --- Over/Under: 7 See the Latest Odds


In MLB action Tuesday evening at Citizens Bank Park, the Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies will tangle once again.

This will be game two of a three-game early-week set. In Monday’s opener, the Marlins struck first with a 5-3 victory, scoring the deciding pair of runs in the top of the seventh. Both Philly and Miami had 10 hits in the game.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - 5/17/16 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction


For Tuesday’s matchup, the Marlins will be rolling out left-hander Wei-Yin Chen in the starting role. Chen has posted some reasonably strong outings in his seven starts, resulting in a 4.40 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and a 3-1 record over 43 total innings. On Wednesday when we last saw him, Chen struck out 12 Brewers, allowing two runs in 6.1 innings.

The Miami batting order features a pretty good group of young sluggers. Martin Prado heads the pack on 51 hits with 12 runs. Prado had a pair of RBI on Monday. Marcel Ozuna has contributed 44 hits with 23 runs. Ozuna had a solo homer in Monday’s matchup. Giancarlo Stanton has 11 homers with 25 RBI, but has fought a bit with his .233 BA this season.

The Phillies will be whipping out right-hander Vincent Velasquez for Tuesday’s game. In his seven starts and 4-1 record this year, Velasquez has been great on a 2.70 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 43.1 innings. On Thursday, Velasquez started out strong against the Braves but ultimately allowed four runs in six innings for a no-decision.

The Philadelphia offense has been largely ineffective this season, but there are a few gems in the order. Odubel Herrera has 48 hits with 25 runs, while Maikel Franco isn’t far off with 36 hits and 23 RBI. Ryan Howard has managed to blast eight homers and 17 RBI this year, but his BA is a sputtering .174. Howard sat in favor of rookie Tommy Joseph (1-for-4) on Monday.

The Marlins are 4-0 in Chen’s last four starts, and 10-3 in their last 13 road games overall.
As for the Phillies, they’re 5-2 in Velasquez’s last seven starts, and 6-1 in their last seven game twos of a series.

Based on offense, I’m going to give the Marlins a slight edge. That said, I can easily see Chen and Velasquez shutting things down in a pitchers’ duel. The under also seems plausible here, but it's set at a tough number to get below.

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