Orioles at Blue Jays - 10/4/16 MLB AL Wild Card Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Baltimore Orioles (89-73) at Toronto Blue Jays (89-73)
MLB Baseball: Tuesday, October 4, 2016 at 8:08 pm (Rogers Centre)
Tillman vs. Stroman
The Line: Toronto Blue Jays -144 / Baltimore Orioles +134 --- Over/Under: 8.5 See the Latest Odds
The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays play the American League Wild Card game Tuesday night on TBS.
The Baltimore Orioles are one of the hotter teams in the postseason with wins in seven of their last nine games and clinch the playoffs for the third time since 2012. The Orioles offense relies heavily on the long ball, as they led the majors with 253 home runs and were third with a .443 slugging percentage. The Orioles have a dangerous lineup with power bats led by Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis and Manny Machado, a trio that produced a combined 288 RBI. The Baltimore Orioles are in good hands when the bats are rolling, and they’ve won 12 of their last 14 games when scoring more than three runs. Pitching wise, Chris Tillman gets the nod, and he was 16-6 with a 3.77 ERA and 140 strikeouts this season. Tillman is 1-0 with a 6.75 ERA and nine strikeouts in his postseason career.
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The Toronto Blue Jays have won 10 of their last 17 games and made the playoffs back-to-back years for the first time since 1992-93. The Blue Jays are a very balanced team that finished ninth with 759 runs scored and tied for first with 100 quality starts. Offensively, there’s few lineups more scary than the Blue Jays’ that features Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin, four guys with more than 70 RBI. The Toronto Blue Jays have won 20 of their last 24 games when scoring more than three runs. Pitching wise, Marcus Stroman takes the hill, and he was 9-10 with a 4.37 ERA and 166 strikeouts this season. Stroman is 1-0 with a 4.19 ERA and 10 strikeouts in his postseason career.
The Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 road games and 23-8 in Tillman's last 31 starts. The Blue Jays are 9-4 in their last 13 Tuesday games and 1-5 in Stroman's last 6 starts. The Orioles are 4-0 in Tillman's last 4 starts vs. the Blue Jays and the Orioles are 25-56 in the last 81 meetings in Toronto overall.
There’s great value with the Orioles in this game given the way they played down the stretch and the fact Tillman has an ERA of 2.97 on the road compared to an ERA of 4.61 at home. Not to mention the Orioles did beat the Blue Jays the last two meetings, both taking place in Toronto. However, the Blue Jays have a more complete lineup and are hitting damn near .300 against Tillman with 20 homers in 314 at bats. The crowd in Toronto is also one of the best you’re going to see in the playoffs and the players feed off that (see José Bautista). Stroman is also a fiery pitcher who likes the bright lights and should shine on this stage in his second playoff appearance.
I like the Blue Jays at home to get the victory here.