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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - 10/4/16 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Baltimore Orioles (89-73) at Toronto Blue Jays (89-73)

MLB Baseball: Tuesday, October 4, 2016 at 8:08 pm (Rogers Centre)

C Tillman (16-6) (3.77) vs. M Stroman (9-10) (4.37)

The Line: Toronto Blue Jays TBA / Baltimore Orioles TBA --- Over/Under: TBA See the Latest Odds


The 2016 MLB AL Wild Card Round of the playoffs will be Tuesday at Rogers Centre as the Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays hit the field.  

The Orioles finished the regular season at 89-73 and snagged second place in the AL East. The Blue Jays also posted an 89-73 record in the regular season this year to eke out a Wild Card, meaning that three of the top five records in the American League came from the highly competitive East. (Toronto won the season series 10-9 to get home-field advantage here.) 

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - 10/4/16 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction


The Orioles will be rolling with Chris Tillman in Tuesday's game. Over 30 starts and a 16-6 record in the regular season, Tillman posted a 3.77 ERA in 172 innings. In his last start in Toronto, Tillman bagged a no-decision on 5.2 innings with six hits and one earned run. 

Baltimore has some excellent bats in their order. Manny Machado leads the way with 188 hits, 105 runs, 37 homers and 96 RBI. Adam Jones has 164 hits with 86 runs, 29 hoes and 83 RBI. Jonathan Schoop has bagged 164 hits with 82 runs, 25 homers and 82 RBI. 

The Blue Jays will be giving the start Tuesday to Marcus Stroman. In his 32 starts this year, Stroman holds a 9-10 record, a 4.37 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP in 204 innings. In a loss to Baltimore his last time out, Stroman went seven innings with nine hits and four earned runs. 

Toronto has quite the enviable lineup as well. Josh Donaldson heads the charge on 164 hits with 122 runs, 37 homers and 99 RBI. Edwin Encarnacion sits on 158 hits with 99 runs, 42 homers and 127 RBI. Kevin Pillar is at 146 hits with 59 runs and 53 RBI. 

The Orioles are 4-1 in their last five road games, and 4-1 in their last five overall. Baltimore is also 5-2 in their last seven games on astroturf, and 2-5 in their last seven during game one of a series. 

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last six during game one of a series, and 48-21 in their last 69 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Toronto is also 9-4 in their last 13 Tuesday games, and the under is 6-0 i the Blue Jays’ last six against the AL East. 

Baltimore finished the regular season pretty strong, but their 0-4 record in their last four playoff games admittedly gives me pause. Still, this is a new season and I expect this game to be close. That said, I’ll stick with the Blue Jays’ potent bats and home field advantage here, as the Orioles seem a little too reliant on the home run to generate sufficient offense. An off-night from Baltimore’s long-ball could spell their doom, but conversely Stroman has to be on point to keep that from happening. All things considered, I'm staying away from this one. 

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