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Indians vs. Red Sox - 10/6/16 MLB ALDS Game One Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Boston Red Sox (93-69) at Cleveland Indians (94-67)

MLB Baseball: Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 8:00 pm (Progressive Field)

R Porcello (22-4) (3.15) vs. T Bauer (12-8) (4.26)

The Line: Cleveland Indians +115 / Boston Red Sox -125 --- Over/Under: 8.5 See the Latest Odds


The Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians meet Thursday night in game one of the ALDS on TBS.

The Boston Red Sox won the AL East and are back in the playoffs for the first time since winning the World Series in 2013. The Red Sox were an offensive machine this season as their 878 runs scored and team .282 batting average were the best in the majors. No lead is safe with the Red Sox and their lineup produces from top to bottom, as David Ortiz, Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez are three Boston players with more than 100 RBI. Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. is a dio that combined for 47 home runs. The Boston Red Sox have won 19 of their last 20 games when scoring more than three runs. Pitching wise, Rick Porcello gets the nod, and he was 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA and 189 strikeouts this season. Porcello is 0-2 with a 4.41 ERA and 13 strikeouts in his postseason career.

Indians vs. Red Sox - 10/6/16 MLB ALDS Game One Pick, Odds, and Prediction


The Cleveland Indians won the AL Central and are in their first playoff series since the 2007 season. The Indians are one of the more balanced teams in the playoffs, as their 777 runs scored and .243 opponents batting average was good for fifth in the majors. Guys like Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli and Carlos Santana lead the Indians offensively, but Cleveland is a team that has seven different players with 100-plus hits. The Indians also have a secret weapon in Rajai Davis, who has 15 stolen bases since September. The Cleveland Indians can win games a variety of ways and will be excited to play at Progressive Field considering they haven’t had a home game since September 25. Trevor Bauer takes the hill, and he was 12-8 with a 4.26 ERA and 168 strikeouts this season. This will be Bauer’s first career postseason game.

The Red Sox have won six of the last seven games Porcello has pitched and he has a monthly ERA of 2.70 or under since July. The Indians have won five of the last seven games Bauer has pitched. However, Bauer has allowed six earned runs in six innings against Boston this season and has a career batting average of .386 against the Red Sox. In 44 at bats against this current Red Sox lineup, Bauer has allowed 17 hits and 14 RBI. Bauer has allowed 27 runs in his last 38 innings of work overall. 

Porcello has a .290 batting average against this current Indians team and has struck out 43 batters in 238 at bats. I value home teams in playoff games and you can never count out the Indians, but the Red Sox have a massive pitching advantage here.

I have to side with the Red Sox to steal game one. 

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