Giants vs. Cubs - 10/11/16 MLB Game Four NLDS Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Chicago Cubs (105-58-1) at San Francisco Giants (88-77)
MLB Baseball: Tuesday, October 11, 2016 at 8:40 pm (AT&T Park)
J Lackey (11-8) (3.35) vs. M Moore (13-12) (4.08)
The Line: San Francisco Giants / Chicago Cubs --- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
The Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants play game four of the NLDS Tuesday night at AT&T Park on FS1.
The Chicago Cubs will have another chance to advance to the NLCS after blowing chances to win game three. The Cubs had the series wrapped up before Aroldis Chapman blew the game in the eighth inning, getting too much of the plate on a ball hit to right center field. A Kris Bryant homerun pushed the Cubs into extra innings, but it wasn’t enough to complete the sweep. However, the Chicago Cubs have lost back-to-back games just twice since September, so Joe Maddon and his club have shown all year they’re great at bouncing back. John Lackey gets the nod, and he was 11-8 with a 3.35 ERA and 180 strikeouts this season. Lackey is 8-5 with a 3.11 ERA and 99 strikeouts in his postseason career.
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The San Francisco Giants need another victory if they’re going to force a deciding game five on Thursday night. The Giants should head into this game with some confidence after making a big time comeback in game three in which they were down three runs at one point and down to their last six outs. Brandon Belt, Buster Posey and Hunter Pence must continue to show up in big spots and carry a Giants offense that can go ice cold for several innings. However, with that said, the San Francisco Giants are money in elimination games and have to like their chances in this spot. For this game, Matt Moore takes the hill, and he was 13-12 with a 4.08 ERA and 178 strikeouts this season. Moore is 1-1 with a 4.41 ERA and 15 strikeouts in his postseason career.
The Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 Divisional Playoff games and 4-1 in Lackeys last 5 starts. The Giants are 7-1 in their last 8 playoff home games and 4-1 in Moores last 5 starts. The Cubs are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in San Francisco and the under is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings in San Francisco.
Both of these pitchers have been solid as of late, as Moore has allowed two runs in his last 15.2 innings and Lackey has allowed three runs in his last 12 innings. The difference for me is that Lackey has an ERA of 4.37 on the road compared to his ERA of 2.62 at home. Moore has an ERA of 3.36 at home compared to his ERA of 5.02 on the road. The Giants also simply find ways to win when their back is against the wall, and they have a huge advantage considering they're sleeping in their own bed with a massive quick turnaround. After all, these two clubs just played nearly five hours.
I'll side with the Giants again here, as San Fran has a chance to win 11 straight elimination games.